Thanks for all your contributions, Geoff. Stay strong, and I hope you don’t quit.
A lot more can be said than fits in a reply typed from a phone, but I’ll mention these thoughts.
The myth of progress and the myth of apocalypse are both myths. The most likely outcome is a middle-of-the-curve one. We’re incredibly good at kicking the can, and can no longer afford to do anything else, because the sacrifices required literally end society as we know it, resulting in endless suffering and death.
Peak oil is still just the peak of the global Hubbert curve. When it can be seen to have peaked for sure (which can only be done retroactively), it will take a long while to descend. Yes, EROI will keep falling, but we can still make an energy profit. We’ll just the throw weaker nations under the bus, taking what we need by any and all means necessary. Collapse will be incredibly uneven and unjust.
America is gonna suck the next 10-25 years, but during and after an accelerating collapse, actually be among the best places to be, considering geography: vast oceans and space, resources, and a ton of military hardware. Noone will dare approach the wall.
Re prepping: it makes sense re financial and commercial collapse. Not soon after that, however, countless people will come to your community wanting in. How will preppers keep them all out, given that a sustainable low-energy community can’t support very many people? With enough desperation, I don’t see how preppers get to mind their own sustainable lives for very long. But yeah, if the commercial collapse takes a coupled decades to play our, prepping makes some sense.
Fwiw I think 2035 will be around the time where everyone can see shit has hit the fan, and by 2050 things will be truly grim. Thinking longer term than 25 years seems borderline absurd to me, so anyone savimg for longterm retirement, taking long educations or wanting babies should really do a bit more research into collapse first.
That was some pretty good typing for a phone, Jan. Thanks, I intend to stay the course.
You are correct, the harsh measures we would need to take now would result in immediate pain and death, not a political, option. People don't want to hear the truth, and will reject it if it's not to their liking. Sadly, we've been kicking the can down the road since at least the early 1970s, when we could still have altered our trajectory.
I'm not sure how long that EROI on oil will last, hence my extremely coarse guess that spans a couple of decades. Perhaps more interesting to me is how the increasing costs ripple through the economy, and the fight among the powers to control resources in melting polar regions as shipping lanes open and permafrost thaws. Of course, exploiting these resources which will include previously unobtainable oil deposits is more death through global warming and ecosystem destruction, but not harvesting it is more death as well. We know which choice will be made.
At what point will agriculture be so compromised to lead to starvation on a scale never seen? How resource wars play out? Will a nuclear power like Pakistan at ground zero of the climate crisis do something crazy out of desperation? What will the actual temperature rise be by 2050? There are many wild cards and limits to predictability. Thinking even 25 years ahead is a grasp, but we can bet the world's military powers are running hundreds of scenarios.
It's going to be a tough ride down for all but the most insulated. I'm enjoying having heat as the cold grips the northeast (although it's not cold like 30 years ago).
What wall is that? The one in the movies. The human traffickers/drug traffickers have been shitting on American border walls for decades before Nixon officially began the War on Drugs, which has been a super expensive abysmal failure. Exactly the same as all of America's other wars over the last 75 years.
IMO the only wall that will be needed is the one to keep Americans from fleeing their expanding shit-hole/sacrifice zones. Go for a drive where you have never driven before, away from your safe spaces. Out of western nations, the US is the last place I would want to be when the shit really hits big (I've lived there). It's already bad, but since they have the largest propaganda Machine in history - no population has been propagandized to the level the American people have. It's criminal. Obviously they are not able to manufacture consent like they used to. A guy kills a CEO and becomes an American folk hero in spite of the machine painting him as a terrorist with 'mental health' issues. They just ain't buying it.
.
*We Went to Western North Carolina: People Are Still Reeling*
"It's like a 3rd world country"
'Dec 21, 2024
We went to North Carolina to get residents’ side of the story after Hurricane Helene.
People told us that the systems designed to help people rebuild and recover are failing.
It’s a much bigger problem than we imagined — and it’s only going to get worse.'
This is not unique to this recent N Carolina ongoing disaster. There's people in the same situation is other states from other global warming jacked disasters, like in Houston-Hurricane Harvey.
Collapse is not an event we are waiting around to happen it's a process and it's been underway for decades and is all aspects the scale is unprecedented and the rate of destruction of the biosphere is unprecedented based on 200+ years of accumulated fossil and goechemical record. Most serious scientific and data based predictions of collapse I've seen have the final phases as between 2030-2050. This includes the 'worst pathway from the World 1 model in the 1970's. Same with climate. Those predicting faster than expected and worse than expected have been more accurate than the optimists. I think much of ones take, assuming they are not an out right denier-contrarian has to do with how much and where they are directing their attention.
Visit this site everyday for a month and see how you feel. Most people simply can't handle it. We never evolved to handle this on a daily basis. Most humans, most of the time need a reason to get out of bed every morning. They need a modicum of hope and they will listen to anyone providing one over a no hope future. No hope is a matter of opinion and likely depends on a number of factors, like being a parent. I'm not, but imagine it could be rough.
I think the US will build a wall (effectively if not literally) when it defaults on its debt and the global currency collapses. It will tell everyone to F off.
But no one really knows what will happen then. It’s like a singularity.
The best I can do is paint in broad sweeps based on energy, warming and overshoot issues, physical realities that will be the drivers of the future. We can easily see inflation, climate migration, homelessness and deaths are going to increase dramatically, even in wealthy nations. Social safety nets will crumble — hell, here in the US the new administration is going to attempt to take them well before there's no money to fund the programs in yet another tax cut for the oligarchy.
Excellent, as always and spot on. We as a species, are definitely way over the edge and with no return that I can see in the near future. It’s all going to hell. I’m glad I’m old. But what a totally unnecessary and insidious thing this self destruction has been.
Please don't say this. "I'm glad I'm old." That relegates all of this destruction and pollution of the planet to our young, our children, our youth. The next generations. I know this isn't what you mean but it does imply a certain non chalance and relief at not having to deal with the worst repercussions of humanity's behavior over the past century or so. In fact, we need our elders — all of you — more than ever. Don't throw up your hands.
Yes and. Getting heads out of the sand to be realistic about what we are headed for – actually already enmeshed in – is common sense. But there’s another track I wish you’d pick up on about the best chance we have to avert the worst of what otherwise will come.
That would be a global mind change to everyone being on it to come up with what would be best to do. That would include what you’re talking about and would add getting everyone on the team of humanity caring. We need a radical shift from living in an economic world to living in a humanitarian one, from rugged individualism still at the forefront to altruism being foremost. Please include, in your purview, war and avarice becoming obsolete and getting all hands on deck, in this creative species, to come up with what even could insure that we will have a decent future.
You get my Substacks, and there’s material there I’d love you to be as enthusiastic about sharing as I am about sharing your material.
Suzanne, I deeply appreciate your support of my work and I would love to see the epiphany you sensibly, passionately desire. I tend to frame it in human behavior, you tend to frame it in the human heart. Both are necessary to be a complete person. Altruism — generosity without expectations, is a measure of our potential to be human, not creatures simply operating on animal instinct. This is a question in my mind constantly. Can we do better than animal instinct? In animals without technology, it's acceptable. In people with technology, it's lethal.
We should be able to, since a small percentage already do so, living closer to our best potential. You're asking for a profound breakthrough of consciousness. That may very well be desired by the oppressed majority, but is snuffed out by the powerful minority. We haven't learned that our superpower is the brain, rather we elevate people who appeal to our primitive idea of what strength is. Classic brawn over brains.
I will try to do a better job of supporting your posts and thoughts. We seem to see the potential of our immediate future differently. I'm seeing a difficult fight framed by deteriorating conditions, you speak for a wonderful needed break through of human conscientious. This I know for certain. I would rather have your vision be true than mine.
I appreciate how sensitive you are to what I'm sensitive to. It's not that we diverge in our beliefs, though. The likelihood I see is in a range of devastation, which has propelled me to deal with what could be done. Maybe you'd get engaged with my thinking, where I'd welcome your good smarts.
Thank you, Suzanne! The prelude to civilization was supposed to be the Ten Commandments, but people found that simple burden to heavy and tried to build a civilization without the necessary preconditions. If those basic rules for civilization had been imbued in all peoples over all these centuries, we would not have ended up in these dire straits. We CANNOT have peace or a civilized existence while the traits of war and theft are present in every level, from personal, to group, to nation, to world. The other Commandments are also important, but these two are our greatest nemesis. All human brains must d/l a new OS. No hay otra camino!
I just was listening to the best talk, by Peter Russell, a real smart English guy, who said there's no blame because it's all a function of the natural process of exponential growth that has us depleting the planet: https://vimeo.com/1029754086/b62b72f857.
Small point but our brains are not five percent plastic — the article you link to gives it as nought point five percent. Possibly quite important, but who knows?
Given the bleek outlook, I really don't understand how Trump is any worse or better than another Democrat President. The destination remains the same. As we approach collapse eco-authoritarianim will creep in regardless. Kamala certainly couldn't have printed more oil into existence or woken up the climate deniers.
One of the left's biggest faults is their inability to distance themselves with unelected eco-stalinist organizations like the WEF. The reason the right thinks the whole thing is a scam, is because organizations like the WEF seek total control in the coming collapse and sell BS narratives like "green transition" and net zero based on the false belief that we can continue growing forever.
I agree with you, the destination is the same. The difference I see is an acceleration of the climate and ecological disaster, the persecution of those deemed different (LGBQT and people of color), loss of bodily autonomy for women, and the possible rise of a Christian fascist state. In the long run, our inability to take care of our planet leads to the same dreary place, but in the short run the suffering is greater for the most vulnerable people.
I see where you're coming from and very appreciate how much you appear to truly care for the vulnerable. I can tell by your writing how genuine you are, and we will be needing a lot more people like yourself in the times ahead.
I would argue however, persecution and fascism are not the result of any one leader, but are symptoms of a civilization in decline and corruption to the core. The issues are so much deeper than superficial politics. Like climate change isn't a policy problem, it's a CO2 waste management issue for a civilization far into overshoot. It's also a spiritual/consciousness issue of a species infected with the Wetiko Mind Virus - the disconnection from the reality of being a part of nature and of the biosphere for thousands of years. Do you really think that politics can affect any change at all in a paradigm and consciousness of consumption and exploitation of nature for plastic widgets and profits? Not a chance in hell, least of not with the Obama/Biden cartel.
Trumpism 2.0 is simply the latest Chapter of deep state psyop and controlled opposition. The oligarchy needs a narcissistic divisive character like Trump to secure energy and resources for the empire, and to sow division amongst the partisan masses. It will give them the excuses needed to pass more draconian security state laws as more terrorist attacks occur under Trump.
When multiple bread baskets fail, and Western economies collapse, we will all be equally hungry, and equally persecuted for being poor and inferior to the elites. At that point bodily autonomy and sexual orientation/identity will be the least of everyone's concerns.
Geoffrey and readers, please listen to this talk by Peter Russell, who is greatly admired in the world where science and spirit merge that gives us insights into human behavior to help us forge whatever the best path for humanity would be:
The only real and viable solution is consume less and degrowth, contra the growth is necessary of the capitalism model. In other words, unlikely to happen. We should consume less, regardless, because it is healthier, for us and for the Earth.
A bit wordy and overly general for my tastes. Too many humans are using too many natural resources and producing too much pollution, including heat and GHGs. Follow C3S and their "Climate Pulse" page for the truth about climate collapse, which will take us down shortly and which the fossil fuel propaganda sycophants will not let us know broadly in their MSM until it's way too late, which it probably already is. HAPPY NEW YEAR!
Any species that outstrips the resources of its environment faces the same fate. If one looks at it dispassionately, we're just another experiment of evolution. Sociopaths have created this situation, a minority that is taking all of us down, including other amazing life forms that live within the confines of the planet and don't deserve this fate. I do feel pain for that.
Animal testing is repulsive and evil. Animals have minds and emotions we underestimate and disrespect. One has to wonder of the mindset of people willing to participate in this cruelty. I didn't ask for that, yet by being born an American I am a participant in our problems.
People in the poor countries we have used to extract our wealth and power certainly generally deserve less blame. Yet, the thugs in such countries that conspire with the global north demonstrate sociopathy can occur in anyone, anywhere.
I often wonder about advanced creatures like whales that have intelligence that may rival ours, but in the ocean, a world essentially alien to us. Is their low impact on the planet simply a result of not having hands and therefore an inability to make tools?
I am disappointed in Homo sapiens. I think the best of us could have drawn back from this "progress" to realize, time, relationships, and preservation of the planet is where meaning and a future lies.
Hiya, even if we got rid of all the monsters, rentiers, oil barons and oligarchs we'd still be faced with building economies based on something other than growth. Unless 8 billion are going self-sufficient.
Astrologers see this differently and I like to think they’re right. They see this as the darkness before the Age of Aquarius, which is to be the peace on earth, loving, humane period. It slowly arrives even though we heard about it years ago. It’s still some years off. It’s to be horrible before it happens. Horrible is close so the Age of Aquarius is not that far off.
If you never studied astrology this is a good time to start.
Here's one right out of left field. While watching a blog by Sabin Hossenfelder about Elon Musk's great plan to colonize Mars, it occurred to me that his motives are questionable. With an atmosphere in the -60C, and Co2 96%, Argon 1.93%, Nitrogen 1.89%, wouldn't it make a great extermination destination? Colonists could be "sponsored", (seen that before) and would be completely dependant on this planets tech and political ruling class. All the "inconvenient humans" on this planet could be expelled and exterminated and AI could choose them.
I'm all for questioning the motives of Musk and his fellow oligarchs. Space travel takes enormous money and resources, though (far more than available to relocate a significant number of people). Even establishing a small base on Mars would an incredible undertaking. With climate change, overshoot, oil running out and forced climate migration, extermination can take place here cheaply, with little effort. It's already happening.
I think Musk and his other techie billionaires have a fantasy that they can get a colony on Mars with themselves, when it’s late in the game and young very intelligent tech types, early in the game to get the colony established. A haven for the wealthy and their worker bees.
Thing is, it will be an awful life for all. No natural beauty, other animals like birds, pets that normal people enjoy, no clean air, natural water, art, literature, great food or a full varied life. It will be a boring endless depressing unfulfilling life..
But it will really never happen anyway, I don’t believe..climate change will happen too fast, for that to ever realistically occur.
Terraforming a planet will take far more than Musk, a few of his tech bros and some science types. If they actually got there, I believe it would be a short and unpleasant experience. Excuse me, I feel weepy now...
There's been dread in the air for a long time now, thus a glut of dystopian books and movies. Some even support the notion of a cataclysm that would wipe out billions of humans as a reasonable agent of change, leaving the survivors to "rebuild humanity's infrastructure."
The cold cynicism of such a notion is psychopathological, but I see this reasoning, too. I believe much of the ultra wealthy see elimination of the rest of us as the next step in evolution, as if wealth makes a person superior. Can I prove it, of course not, but the ancillary evidence is all around us. It's certainly manifested in Musk, and one can look at wealthy behavior and comments through time to see their feeling of superiority. They have no clue, that ultimately they will fall, too, just a bit later. I wrote this during Trump 1.0. https://geoffreydeihl.substack.com/p/circumstantial-evidence
Yes, the abject lack of humility before great forces that the broligarchs display reveals their huge blind spot. Even old Nathaniel Hawthorne pointed out that the gravest of sins is that of intellectual pride, worse than the sins of other kinds. And their data centers, lithium production, rocket fuel for their very veins will be the end of our relatively short stay in this universe.
Make sure whatever wealth you have is safe. I am no financial adviser, but the big picture is an economic downturn that grows more severe over time and crashes at some point. I can't tell you when, but I can tell you it's under way. It's a subject I will likely learn more about over the coming months. My father passed, and I am having to think about where my mother's money is. Things won't crash overnight, but it's time to start figuring it out. In general, I'd say pay off debt, and set aside some money as emergency cash in hand. Also, helping them now without jeopardizing yourselves may be better than waiting so they can better protect themselves from the storm to come.
Thanks for all your contributions, Geoff. Stay strong, and I hope you don’t quit.
A lot more can be said than fits in a reply typed from a phone, but I’ll mention these thoughts.
The myth of progress and the myth of apocalypse are both myths. The most likely outcome is a middle-of-the-curve one. We’re incredibly good at kicking the can, and can no longer afford to do anything else, because the sacrifices required literally end society as we know it, resulting in endless suffering and death.
Peak oil is still just the peak of the global Hubbert curve. When it can be seen to have peaked for sure (which can only be done retroactively), it will take a long while to descend. Yes, EROI will keep falling, but we can still make an energy profit. We’ll just the throw weaker nations under the bus, taking what we need by any and all means necessary. Collapse will be incredibly uneven and unjust.
America is gonna suck the next 10-25 years, but during and after an accelerating collapse, actually be among the best places to be, considering geography: vast oceans and space, resources, and a ton of military hardware. Noone will dare approach the wall.
Re prepping: it makes sense re financial and commercial collapse. Not soon after that, however, countless people will come to your community wanting in. How will preppers keep them all out, given that a sustainable low-energy community can’t support very many people? With enough desperation, I don’t see how preppers get to mind their own sustainable lives for very long. But yeah, if the commercial collapse takes a coupled decades to play our, prepping makes some sense.
Fwiw I think 2035 will be around the time where everyone can see shit has hit the fan, and by 2050 things will be truly grim. Thinking longer term than 25 years seems borderline absurd to me, so anyone savimg for longterm retirement, taking long educations or wanting babies should really do a bit more research into collapse first.
Until then, enjoy peak civilisation, everyone :-)
That was some pretty good typing for a phone, Jan. Thanks, I intend to stay the course.
You are correct, the harsh measures we would need to take now would result in immediate pain and death, not a political, option. People don't want to hear the truth, and will reject it if it's not to their liking. Sadly, we've been kicking the can down the road since at least the early 1970s, when we could still have altered our trajectory.
I'm not sure how long that EROI on oil will last, hence my extremely coarse guess that spans a couple of decades. Perhaps more interesting to me is how the increasing costs ripple through the economy, and the fight among the powers to control resources in melting polar regions as shipping lanes open and permafrost thaws. Of course, exploiting these resources which will include previously unobtainable oil deposits is more death through global warming and ecosystem destruction, but not harvesting it is more death as well. We know which choice will be made.
At what point will agriculture be so compromised to lead to starvation on a scale never seen? How resource wars play out? Will a nuclear power like Pakistan at ground zero of the climate crisis do something crazy out of desperation? What will the actual temperature rise be by 2050? There are many wild cards and limits to predictability. Thinking even 25 years ahead is a grasp, but we can bet the world's military powers are running hundreds of scenarios.
It's going to be a tough ride down for all but the most insulated. I'm enjoying having heat as the cold grips the northeast (although it's not cold like 30 years ago).
"Noone will dare approach the wall."
What wall is that? The one in the movies. The human traffickers/drug traffickers have been shitting on American border walls for decades before Nixon officially began the War on Drugs, which has been a super expensive abysmal failure. Exactly the same as all of America's other wars over the last 75 years.
IMO the only wall that will be needed is the one to keep Americans from fleeing their expanding shit-hole/sacrifice zones. Go for a drive where you have never driven before, away from your safe spaces. Out of western nations, the US is the last place I would want to be when the shit really hits big (I've lived there). It's already bad, but since they have the largest propaganda Machine in history - no population has been propagandized to the level the American people have. It's criminal. Obviously they are not able to manufacture consent like they used to. A guy kills a CEO and becomes an American folk hero in spite of the machine painting him as a terrorist with 'mental health' issues. They just ain't buying it.
.
*We Went to Western North Carolina: People Are Still Reeling*
"It's like a 3rd world country"
'Dec 21, 2024
We went to North Carolina to get residents’ side of the story after Hurricane Helene.
People told us that the systems designed to help people rebuild and recover are failing.
It’s a much bigger problem than we imagined — and it’s only going to get worse.'
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dbU_aWXJlMg
.
This is not unique to this recent N Carolina ongoing disaster. There's people in the same situation is other states from other global warming jacked disasters, like in Houston-Hurricane Harvey.
Collapse is not an event we are waiting around to happen it's a process and it's been underway for decades and is all aspects the scale is unprecedented and the rate of destruction of the biosphere is unprecedented based on 200+ years of accumulated fossil and goechemical record. Most serious scientific and data based predictions of collapse I've seen have the final phases as between 2030-2050. This includes the 'worst pathway from the World 1 model in the 1970's. Same with climate. Those predicting faster than expected and worse than expected have been more accurate than the optimists. I think much of ones take, assuming they are not an out right denier-contrarian has to do with how much and where they are directing their attention.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Latest Round-Ups
Catch up on the latest Climate & Economy news.
https://climateandeconomy.com/
Visit this site everyday for a month and see how you feel. Most people simply can't handle it. We never evolved to handle this on a daily basis. Most humans, most of the time need a reason to get out of bed every morning. They need a modicum of hope and they will listen to anyone providing one over a no hope future. No hope is a matter of opinion and likely depends on a number of factors, like being a parent. I'm not, but imagine it could be rough.
I think the US will build a wall (effectively if not literally) when it defaults on its debt and the global currency collapses. It will tell everyone to F off.
But no one really knows what will happen then. It’s like a singularity.
Fun times.
The best I can do is paint in broad sweeps based on energy, warming and overshoot issues, physical realities that will be the drivers of the future. We can easily see inflation, climate migration, homelessness and deaths are going to increase dramatically, even in wealthy nations. Social safety nets will crumble — hell, here in the US the new administration is going to attempt to take them well before there's no money to fund the programs in yet another tax cut for the oligarchy.
Yeah. My comment was intended for "Famous" (below), who asked what wall I meant.
Excellent, as always and spot on. We as a species, are definitely way over the edge and with no return that I can see in the near future. It’s all going to hell. I’m glad I’m old. But what a totally unnecessary and insidious thing this self destruction has been.
Unfortunately, I have to like this comment. Reality is tough.
Please don't say this. "I'm glad I'm old." That relegates all of this destruction and pollution of the planet to our young, our children, our youth. The next generations. I know this isn't what you mean but it does imply a certain non chalance and relief at not having to deal with the worst repercussions of humanity's behavior over the past century or so. In fact, we need our elders — all of you — more than ever. Don't throw up your hands.
Yes and. Getting heads out of the sand to be realistic about what we are headed for – actually already enmeshed in – is common sense. But there’s another track I wish you’d pick up on about the best chance we have to avert the worst of what otherwise will come.
That would be a global mind change to everyone being on it to come up with what would be best to do. That would include what you’re talking about and would add getting everyone on the team of humanity caring. We need a radical shift from living in an economic world to living in a humanitarian one, from rugged individualism still at the forefront to altruism being foremost. Please include, in your purview, war and avarice becoming obsolete and getting all hands on deck, in this creative species, to come up with what even could insure that we will have a decent future.
You get my Substacks, and there’s material there I’d love you to be as enthusiastic about sharing as I am about sharing your material.
Suzanne, I deeply appreciate your support of my work and I would love to see the epiphany you sensibly, passionately desire. I tend to frame it in human behavior, you tend to frame it in the human heart. Both are necessary to be a complete person. Altruism — generosity without expectations, is a measure of our potential to be human, not creatures simply operating on animal instinct. This is a question in my mind constantly. Can we do better than animal instinct? In animals without technology, it's acceptable. In people with technology, it's lethal.
We should be able to, since a small percentage already do so, living closer to our best potential. You're asking for a profound breakthrough of consciousness. That may very well be desired by the oppressed majority, but is snuffed out by the powerful minority. We haven't learned that our superpower is the brain, rather we elevate people who appeal to our primitive idea of what strength is. Classic brawn over brains.
I will try to do a better job of supporting your posts and thoughts. We seem to see the potential of our immediate future differently. I'm seeing a difficult fight framed by deteriorating conditions, you speak for a wonderful needed break through of human conscientious. This I know for certain. I would rather have your vision be true than mine.
I appreciate how sensitive you are to what I'm sensitive to. It's not that we diverge in our beliefs, though. The likelihood I see is in a range of devastation, which has propelled me to deal with what could be done. Maybe you'd get engaged with my thinking, where I'd welcome your good smarts.
Thank you, Suzanne! The prelude to civilization was supposed to be the Ten Commandments, but people found that simple burden to heavy and tried to build a civilization without the necessary preconditions. If those basic rules for civilization had been imbued in all peoples over all these centuries, we would not have ended up in these dire straits. We CANNOT have peace or a civilized existence while the traits of war and theft are present in every level, from personal, to group, to nation, to world. The other Commandments are also important, but these two are our greatest nemesis. All human brains must d/l a new OS. No hay otra camino!
I just was listening to the best talk, by Peter Russell, a real smart English guy, who said there's no blame because it's all a function of the natural process of exponential growth that has us depleting the planet: https://vimeo.com/1029754086/b62b72f857.
thank you for this info and insight!
Small point but our brains are not five percent plastic — the article you link to gives it as nought point five percent. Possibly quite important, but who knows?
You're right, thank you, I need to correct that.
Given the bleek outlook, I really don't understand how Trump is any worse or better than another Democrat President. The destination remains the same. As we approach collapse eco-authoritarianim will creep in regardless. Kamala certainly couldn't have printed more oil into existence or woken up the climate deniers.
One of the left's biggest faults is their inability to distance themselves with unelected eco-stalinist organizations like the WEF. The reason the right thinks the whole thing is a scam, is because organizations like the WEF seek total control in the coming collapse and sell BS narratives like "green transition" and net zero based on the false belief that we can continue growing forever.
I agree with you, the destination is the same. The difference I see is an acceleration of the climate and ecological disaster, the persecution of those deemed different (LGBQT and people of color), loss of bodily autonomy for women, and the possible rise of a Christian fascist state. In the long run, our inability to take care of our planet leads to the same dreary place, but in the short run the suffering is greater for the most vulnerable people.
I see where you're coming from and very appreciate how much you appear to truly care for the vulnerable. I can tell by your writing how genuine you are, and we will be needing a lot more people like yourself in the times ahead.
I would argue however, persecution and fascism are not the result of any one leader, but are symptoms of a civilization in decline and corruption to the core. The issues are so much deeper than superficial politics. Like climate change isn't a policy problem, it's a CO2 waste management issue for a civilization far into overshoot. It's also a spiritual/consciousness issue of a species infected with the Wetiko Mind Virus - the disconnection from the reality of being a part of nature and of the biosphere for thousands of years. Do you really think that politics can affect any change at all in a paradigm and consciousness of consumption and exploitation of nature for plastic widgets and profits? Not a chance in hell, least of not with the Obama/Biden cartel.
Trumpism 2.0 is simply the latest Chapter of deep state psyop and controlled opposition. The oligarchy needs a narcissistic divisive character like Trump to secure energy and resources for the empire, and to sow division amongst the partisan masses. It will give them the excuses needed to pass more draconian security state laws as more terrorist attacks occur under Trump.
When multiple bread baskets fail, and Western economies collapse, we will all be equally hungry, and equally persecuted for being poor and inferior to the elites. At that point bodily autonomy and sexual orientation/identity will be the least of everyone's concerns.
Geoffrey and readers, please listen to this talk by Peter Russell, who is greatly admired in the world where science and spirit merge that gives us insights into human behavior to help us forge whatever the best path for humanity would be:
"Forgiving Humanity: The Curse of Exponential Change": https://scientificandmedical.net/vimeo/peter-russell-forgiving-humanity-the-curse-of-exponential-change-13-november-2024.
To read what I have to say about it, I posted this talk in this Substack post:
"Getting us out of the mess we are in. First is to understand what got us into it": https://suzannetaylor.substack.com/p/getting-us-out-of-the-mess-we-are
The only real and viable solution is consume less and degrowth, contra the growth is necessary of the capitalism model. In other words, unlikely to happen. We should consume less, regardless, because it is healthier, for us and for the Earth.
I’m sorry for your loss. Thank you for keeping on.
Thanks. My father was an intelligent, talented, generous, kind person. I was fortunate to have him.
A bit wordy and overly general for my tastes. Too many humans are using too many natural resources and producing too much pollution, including heat and GHGs. Follow C3S and their "Climate Pulse" page for the truth about climate collapse, which will take us down shortly and which the fossil fuel propaganda sycophants will not let us know broadly in their MSM until it's way too late, which it probably already is. HAPPY NEW YEAR!
It will be painful but I don't see the shaking off of numbnut homo sapiens as a bad thing at all.
Any species that outstrips the resources of its environment faces the same fate. If one looks at it dispassionately, we're just another experiment of evolution. Sociopaths have created this situation, a minority that is taking all of us down, including other amazing life forms that live within the confines of the planet and don't deserve this fate. I do feel pain for that.
I don't believe it's just sociopaths.I think it's all of us.
I feel the pain we're causing millions of other animals in research, testing and farming. I welcome the end of it. 🙏🏽
Animal testing is repulsive and evil. Animals have minds and emotions we underestimate and disrespect. One has to wonder of the mindset of people willing to participate in this cruelty. I didn't ask for that, yet by being born an American I am a participant in our problems.
People in the poor countries we have used to extract our wealth and power certainly generally deserve less blame. Yet, the thugs in such countries that conspire with the global north demonstrate sociopathy can occur in anyone, anywhere.
I often wonder about advanced creatures like whales that have intelligence that may rival ours, but in the ocean, a world essentially alien to us. Is their low impact on the planet simply a result of not having hands and therefore an inability to make tools?
I am disappointed in Homo sapiens. I think the best of us could have drawn back from this "progress" to realize, time, relationships, and preservation of the planet is where meaning and a future lies.
Hiya, even if we got rid of all the monsters, rentiers, oil barons and oligarchs we'd still be faced with building economies based on something other than growth. Unless 8 billion are going self-sufficient.
Astrologers see this differently and I like to think they’re right. They see this as the darkness before the Age of Aquarius, which is to be the peace on earth, loving, humane period. It slowly arrives even though we heard about it years ago. It’s still some years off. It’s to be horrible before it happens. Horrible is close so the Age of Aquarius is not that far off.
If you never studied astrology this is a good time to start.
Here's one right out of left field. While watching a blog by Sabin Hossenfelder about Elon Musk's great plan to colonize Mars, it occurred to me that his motives are questionable. With an atmosphere in the -60C, and Co2 96%, Argon 1.93%, Nitrogen 1.89%, wouldn't it make a great extermination destination? Colonists could be "sponsored", (seen that before) and would be completely dependant on this planets tech and political ruling class. All the "inconvenient humans" on this planet could be expelled and exterminated and AI could choose them.
I'm all for questioning the motives of Musk and his fellow oligarchs. Space travel takes enormous money and resources, though (far more than available to relocate a significant number of people). Even establishing a small base on Mars would an incredible undertaking. With climate change, overshoot, oil running out and forced climate migration, extermination can take place here cheaply, with little effort. It's already happening.
I think Musk and his other techie billionaires have a fantasy that they can get a colony on Mars with themselves, when it’s late in the game and young very intelligent tech types, early in the game to get the colony established. A haven for the wealthy and their worker bees.
Thing is, it will be an awful life for all. No natural beauty, other animals like birds, pets that normal people enjoy, no clean air, natural water, art, literature, great food or a full varied life. It will be a boring endless depressing unfulfilling life..
But it will really never happen anyway, I don’t believe..climate change will happen too fast, for that to ever realistically occur.
Terraforming a planet will take far more than Musk, a few of his tech bros and some science types. If they actually got there, I believe it would be a short and unpleasant experience. Excuse me, I feel weepy now...
There's been dread in the air for a long time now, thus a glut of dystopian books and movies. Some even support the notion of a cataclysm that would wipe out billions of humans as a reasonable agent of change, leaving the survivors to "rebuild humanity's infrastructure."
The cold cynicism of such a notion is psychopathological, but I see this reasoning, too. I believe much of the ultra wealthy see elimination of the rest of us as the next step in evolution, as if wealth makes a person superior. Can I prove it, of course not, but the ancillary evidence is all around us. It's certainly manifested in Musk, and one can look at wealthy behavior and comments through time to see their feeling of superiority. They have no clue, that ultimately they will fall, too, just a bit later. I wrote this during Trump 1.0. https://geoffreydeihl.substack.com/p/circumstantial-evidence
Yes, the abject lack of humility before great forces that the broligarchs display reveals their huge blind spot. Even old Nathaniel Hawthorne pointed out that the gravest of sins is that of intellectual pride, worse than the sins of other kinds. And their data centers, lithium production, rocket fuel for their very veins will be the end of our relatively short stay in this universe.
Tragically, unnecessarily short. A percentage of us had the right stuff.
I swear that they just don't understand that they can't eat money.
Maybe each other?
My husband and I are old (83 and 77). What's the best thing we can do? How do we help our daughter and her husband?
Make sure whatever wealth you have is safe. I am no financial adviser, but the big picture is an economic downturn that grows more severe over time and crashes at some point. I can't tell you when, but I can tell you it's under way. It's a subject I will likely learn more about over the coming months. My father passed, and I am having to think about where my mother's money is. Things won't crash overnight, but it's time to start figuring it out. In general, I'd say pay off debt, and set aside some money as emergency cash in hand. Also, helping them now without jeopardizing yourselves may be better than waiting so they can better protect themselves from the storm to come.
Thank for that advice -- sounds sound and sensible.