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Jan Andrew Bloxham's avatar

Thanks for all your contributions, Geoff. Stay strong, and I hope you don’t quit.

A lot more can be said than fits in a reply typed from a phone, but I’ll mention these thoughts.

The myth of progress and the myth of apocalypse are both myths. The most likely outcome is a middle-of-the-curve one. We’re incredibly good at kicking the can, and can no longer afford to do anything else, because the sacrifices required literally end society as we know it, resulting in endless suffering and death.

Peak oil is still just the peak of the global Hubbert curve. When it can be seen to have peaked for sure (which can only be done retroactively), it will take a long while to descend. Yes, EROI will keep falling, but we can still make an energy profit. We’ll just the throw weaker nations under the bus, taking what we need by any and all means necessary. Collapse will be incredibly uneven and unjust.

America is gonna suck the next 10-25 years, but during and after an accelerating collapse, actually be among the best places to be, considering geography: vast oceans and space, resources, and a ton of military hardware. Noone will dare approach the wall.

Re prepping: it makes sense re financial and commercial collapse. Not soon after that, however, countless people will come to your community wanting in. How will preppers keep them all out, given that a sustainable low-energy community can’t support very many people? With enough desperation, I don’t see how preppers get to mind their own sustainable lives for very long. But yeah, if the commercial collapse takes a coupled decades to play our, prepping makes some sense.

Fwiw I think 2035 will be around the time where everyone can see shit has hit the fan, and by 2050 things will be truly grim. Thinking longer term than 25 years seems borderline absurd to me, so anyone savimg for longterm retirement, taking long educations or wanting babies should really do a bit more research into collapse first.

Until then, enjoy peak civilisation, everyone :-)

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Mary's avatar
Jan 3Edited

Excellent, as always and spot on. We as a species, are definitely way over the edge and with no return that I can see in the near future. It’s all going to hell. I’m glad I’m old. But what a totally unnecessary and insidious thing this self destruction has been.

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