I would love to write something comforting, hopeful, but I dig for the truth. It's interesting to me that no media outlets I am aware of have made this connection, about what the military is thinking and preparing for. Biden approving Willow is for a reason. It's just connecting the dots. Lots of good links to stuff in the faces of patriotic climate deniers. Sorry, I am unable to be part of the club, Oliver, hope all is well in your world.
When I wrote the article, I had no idea the trove of military publications I was to find. I was just trying to find out what the motivation for drilling in Alaska which is melting before our eyes could be.
Certainly, he played ball with Murkowski. You are right, of course, many years before any of that oil hits the market, if that's its purpose. It appears to be a military calculation to me. The Navy has wanted that oil for a long time. Hopefully, something changes, so the stuff never comes out of the ground.
My main concern with your analysis is when you say Willow will “speed up #ClimateChange” without elaborating on the assumptions you make. (If you have described them elsewhere I’d be happy to read about them, I’m not expecting authors to repeat themselves across posts.) One trivial assumption that is obviously true is that extracted oil will be consumed. But are you also assuming that every Willow barrel produced by Willow is an *extra global barrel* that would not have been produced otherwise?
I would disagree with such a strong assumption. For instance, last year the US allowed Chevron to produce oil from Venezuela despite the sanctions because of the energy crunch. If more oil had been produced elsewhere, I don’t think that authorization would have been granted. Another example: US shale basins are increasingly running out of “tier 1” acreage and will increasingly have to rely on tier 2 and 3 acreage. If Willow is lower cost than tier 2/3 shale oil, it might simply displace shale oil, not add to global production.
Thank you for all the good comments. You are correct, I can't know with certainty if Willow will represent extra barrels. Certainly, it won't be online for six or seven years and as another reader pointed out there are no refinery operations local to the project. However, if it's a supply chain issue (it's certainly a national security one), I have no doubt of the military being willing and able to build such a complex. With additional taxpayer subsidies, oil companies could be motivated to build a new refinery as well. They haven't been willing to invest in these complexes in recent years with the writing on the wall for declining oil production, but if the money is there, well you know how that goes.
I am aware that shale oil is beginning to play out. Another good point. We'll know in time if Willow is an additional burden to global warming or simply treading water. Either way, we need to do better.
No, I did mean the Arctic. From my understanding thus far, the Antarctic is less of a concern, although it would be interesting to research that specifically. I wonder if that is a global north bias? The talk mostly seems to be about the Arctic, and the strategic implications internationally are unsettling.
Because of the configuration of the Northern Hemisphere versus the Southern Hemisphere the two poles are warming at different rates. Polar Amplification in the NH is about 4X the global average at the Equator. Polar Amplification in the SH is about 2X.
The Antarctic will melt much more slowly than the Arctic. Although, ultimately it will experience the biggest increase in temperatures.
The Antarctic is an area I haven't explored in detail yet, but I am aware it's bringing new surprises to climate scientists. At some point, the systems tipping later don't really matter from a survival standpoint. Will anyone even be around or able to monitor tipping point eight, nine, twelve, or whatever?
You are welcome and I appreciate you reading. Yes, power brokers are a problem. Business as usual will not slow and reverse global warming and climate change.
Biden probably approved the project to shore up support from conservatives for his reelection. It’ll be years before a drop of new oil hits the markets and he certainly won’t have to live through the consequences.
REALLY GREAT article. Thank you very much for so many excellent research links.
It amazes me how people can think "the Arctic is warming so we will be able to exploit its resources" without connecting that to some idea of how fucking bad that warming will be for civilization. I mean, it should be obvious that you cannot exploit these resources if civilization COLLAPSES from Climate Change.
Thank you, Richard. Yes, it's utter insanity to realize governments think newly available resources from what's killing us is a plan of action. Apparently, the last one standing in some cave in the Arctic wins. I am no fool when it comes to human behavior, but pushed to the edge this way, it's quite stunning. Homo sapiens, incredibly clever, but profoundly governed by primitive instinct.
I would love to write something comforting, hopeful, but I dig for the truth. It's interesting to me that no media outlets I am aware of have made this connection, about what the military is thinking and preparing for. Biden approving Willow is for a reason. It's just connecting the dots. Lots of good links to stuff in the faces of patriotic climate deniers. Sorry, I am unable to be part of the club, Oliver, hope all is well in your world.
When I wrote the article, I had no idea the trove of military publications I was to find. I was just trying to find out what the motivation for drilling in Alaska which is melting before our eyes could be.
Certainly, he played ball with Murkowski. You are right, of course, many years before any of that oil hits the market, if that's its purpose. It appears to be a military calculation to me. The Navy has wanted that oil for a long time. Hopefully, something changes, so the stuff never comes out of the ground.
My main concern with your analysis is when you say Willow will “speed up #ClimateChange” without elaborating on the assumptions you make. (If you have described them elsewhere I’d be happy to read about them, I’m not expecting authors to repeat themselves across posts.) One trivial assumption that is obviously true is that extracted oil will be consumed. But are you also assuming that every Willow barrel produced by Willow is an *extra global barrel* that would not have been produced otherwise?
I would disagree with such a strong assumption. For instance, last year the US allowed Chevron to produce oil from Venezuela despite the sanctions because of the energy crunch. If more oil had been produced elsewhere, I don’t think that authorization would have been granted. Another example: US shale basins are increasingly running out of “tier 1” acreage and will increasingly have to rely on tier 2 and 3 acreage. If Willow is lower cost than tier 2/3 shale oil, it might simply displace shale oil, not add to global production.
Thank you for all the good comments. You are correct, I can't know with certainty if Willow will represent extra barrels. Certainly, it won't be online for six or seven years and as another reader pointed out there are no refinery operations local to the project. However, if it's a supply chain issue (it's certainly a national security one), I have no doubt of the military being willing and able to build such a complex. With additional taxpayer subsidies, oil companies could be motivated to build a new refinery as well. They haven't been willing to invest in these complexes in recent years with the writing on the wall for declining oil production, but if the money is there, well you know how that goes.
I am aware that shale oil is beginning to play out. Another good point. We'll know in time if Willow is an additional burden to global warming or simply treading water. Either way, we need to do better.
A clarification. In the sentence “The melting of the Arctic and Greenland ice sheets”, did you mean Antarctic?
No, I did mean the Arctic. From my understanding thus far, the Antarctic is less of a concern, although it would be interesting to research that specifically. I wonder if that is a global north bias? The talk mostly seems to be about the Arctic, and the strategic implications internationally are unsettling.
Because of the configuration of the Northern Hemisphere versus the Southern Hemisphere the two poles are warming at different rates. Polar Amplification in the NH is about 4X the global average at the Equator. Polar Amplification in the SH is about 2X.
The Antarctic will melt much more slowly than the Arctic. Although, ultimately it will experience the biggest increase in temperatures.
The Antarctic is an area I haven't explored in detail yet, but I am aware it's bringing new surprises to climate scientists. At some point, the systems tipping later don't really matter from a survival standpoint. Will anyone even be around or able to monitor tipping point eight, nine, twelve, or whatever?
So fucking insane. Biden loves his cross aisle prowess. Even when it costs us our entire planet’s future.
Thank you for this article! You describe relationships between Alaskan “power brokers” that I was unaware of. Very interesting!
You are welcome and I appreciate you reading. Yes, power brokers are a problem. Business as usual will not slow and reverse global warming and climate change.
Biden probably approved the project to shore up support from conservatives for his reelection. It’ll be years before a drop of new oil hits the markets and he certainly won’t have to live through the consequences.
This caused a lot of anger and hand wringing the #ClimateCrisisClub Geoff.
REALLY GREAT article. Thank you very much for so many excellent research links.
It amazes me how people can think "the Arctic is warming so we will be able to exploit its resources" without connecting that to some idea of how fucking bad that warming will be for civilization. I mean, it should be obvious that you cannot exploit these resources if civilization COLLAPSES from Climate Change.
You have given me a LOT of homework. I thank you.
Thank you, Richard. Yes, it's utter insanity to realize governments think newly available resources from what's killing us is a plan of action. Apparently, the last one standing in some cave in the Arctic wins. I am no fool when it comes to human behavior, but pushed to the edge this way, it's quite stunning. Homo sapiens, incredibly clever, but profoundly governed by primitive instinct.