No problem, AMOC usually starts up again after about 1000 years. The ocean's recovery after its death from our CO2 emissions could take a relatively minor 5 million years. Without cheap energy these societies collapse anyway. Pick your poison. And we can't sit here writing policy that applies to all the world, they are all on their own track.
Yes, AMOC cycles on and off at short intervals even Homo sapiens can grasp. I've read the 5 million year figure, too, about ocean recovery. You're right, the cheap energy we've depended on to build this level of unsustainability is nearing the end. Still looking for further evidence, but oil and diesel critical for this shit show will likely hit unviable EROI in four decades, give or take. As small as we have made the world, we still haven't figured out we're in this together and show little potential for wising up. I have food in the fridge filled with microplastics, so I guess I'll just be "happy."
Apparently we are already at low EROEI with the mining of tar sands deposits in Canada & Venezuela and fracking for oil and gas (running out of sand AND water), but the oil companies are STILL subsidized, taking everyone for fools. Profits Trump Life, always.
The fracking which turned the US into the world's biggest oil producer is indeed suffering from low EROI. Fracking and tar sand oil harvesting is inherently more costly than the "good old days" of conventional oil. Fracked oil follow the Hubbert curve, although such wells play out faster. The massive subsidizing of fossil fuels is blatant evidence of corruption and the need for publicly financed elections. Too late for such reforms (not coming anyhow) to make a difference.
An exceptional few throughout recorded history, have figured it out. Galileo spent his last years imprisoned for figuring it out. Tragically, most people are easily led sheep and the exceptional few who are murderously psychotic run the show, not the Galileo's. This is survival of the fittest, basic animal instinct gone wrong, made deadly by technology.
Thank you for sharing this. The Guardian of all MSM is doing the best job of covering collapse. The article is correct in pointing out the massive amount of CO2 we've put out in such a short time is the cause of our dilemma. It's curious to me though that the Sixth Extinction is posed as a question. It's well under way, and the Guardian has published on the subject. Here's a link from one of many articles I have on the extinction under way. I can see and feel it in my own life from the absence of insects and lack of bird song where I live. Elizabeth's Kolbert's book The Sixth Extinction is a good read on the subject as well.
I read her book a few weeks ago. It's excellent. In June I drove from NC to upstate NY and from there to Connecticut and then back to NC. Didn't have to clean the windshield even once. There was one large bug splatter and a couple of very small ones. Unbelievable. I think everyone is just tiptoeing past the graveyard. Good to hear from you.
I lived in rural areas of upstate NY for 35 years. The loss of insects is palpable. Motorcycle rides in the mountains made cleaning the face shield of my helmet every 100 miles mandatory. This summer, not even a housefly buzzed through my house. Used to be a guaranteed annoyance. Nor is there much bird activity, I lamented that a few articles ago.
Younger people don't see these losses. The baseline has shifted.
Yes, at 84 now, I have the perspective of years. Raised on a farm in Western CT and then upstate NY. All developed now. The woods were our playground and we walked everywhere, picking berries all the way. Had a farm in the NC Blue Ridge Mtns. for 5 years-bees, chickens, maple syrup, organic garden. Sad to see the changes and think of what's coming.
They sure don’t know. Every 100 years, all new people. And everyone of them only knows, and feels the rightness of, the time into which they were born.
Thanks for sharing. Your article now lives in my Sixth Extinction/Insects folder. Your memories of insects hit home with me, sweaty summer kid days in southern Ohio running from sunup to sundown, caked in sweat and dirt. The buzz, songs, fascinating alienness and irritation of insects was a granted part of life. We have only a vague idea of what we have exterminated and its critical importance to us.
Geoff, you might find it interesting to know that I saw "The Blob" when it was playing in theaters on my very first date. (We were in the third grade, and rode the bus to the movie.) The blob didn't scare me then, but the state of the AMOC does now, as it should everybody.
Thank you for doing such extensive research and sharing your information with the rest of us.
AMOC has hit the headlines the last couple of years in the science community and for those of us who wish to be collapse aware. I've been overdue in writing about it. It IS scary, as its potential immediacy and ramifications for sudden collapse can't be discounted. Unfortunately, as you know, I already wrote of the now inevitable melt of the Greenland ice sheet which literally feeds the issue. Greenland was a goner somewhere around 300 ppm of CO2, about the time The Blob came out. If it triggers an ice age the melt will stop, but you and I won't much care.
The research has consumed a lot of time. It's a little easier now as after four years I have thousands of links to information — probably tens of thousands — carefully organized by necessity to access. Still, this work can be tiring.
Part of me is stunned that humanity is choosing this path. Part of me isn't surprised at all. Thank you for supporting my work. I hope you are well and wish I could bring better news.
Thank you for the article. That was a fantastic essay. Pedaling hope in the face of overwhelming evidence of unstoppable collapse is not useful. Little doubt I have lost readers from refusing to do so.
Pam's deeply thoughtful article may serve as inspiration as I try to move forward with my own writing.
One conclusion I've reached: everyone has a right to handle collapse in their own way (as long as it's not doing active harm). Those that see and embrace reality are probably better served in the long run as is pointed out in the essay. Those that need hopium may be ill prepared to handle coming shocks.
In my immediate life no one will engage in these conversations. Perhaps this is good in some ways. Watching meaningless Buffalo Bills football games with my family is a mental break and my sister is an excellent cook. Avoiding reality in a situation where the die is cast has legitimacy, and I suspect they understand more than they acknowledge. Who am I to judge?
A few years ago I would have felt infuriation watching the games, particularly over the incessant destructive advertising. I have learned to stay calm and refrain from comment, better for me and better for them.
The modest online community I have somehow attracted here allows me to speak my mind and hopefully make those of us who are collapse aware a little less lonely.
I am deeply pessimistic about our future, even a handful surviving, but I am better able to get out of bed every day doing what's right. Moot or not, I want to look younger people in the eye and show I tried to make a difference.
Quite a different question. IDK. There could be a few left to look in the eye if they band together with diverse skills, have a location that can support inhabitability and a lot of good luck I suppose, but that is pure conjecture on my part. If the AMOC collapses it certainly alters the odds of anyone surviving drastically. There is evidence human ancestors nearly went extinct 900,000 years ago, but of course the circumstances were far different.
I always appreciate how you bring together the core facts with such clarity. As you point out, this collapse is not going to happen all at once. Cessation is not a binary, momentary step function. It will unfold over the coming decades. What I want to know is: Tipping into what? Ocean currents will always flow. Heat increases, also salinity as the glacial melt dimishes. What is the transitional phase, how long might it last? Can we anticipate the reconfiguration? Weather never stops. What regional impacts are predicted on the sliding scale timeline? The more people understand about the coming changes, the better we will be able to cope. I am trying to displace anxiety with rationality, for the sake of sanity. Hard thoughts about future times.
No problem, AMOC usually starts up again after about 1000 years. The ocean's recovery after its death from our CO2 emissions could take a relatively minor 5 million years. Without cheap energy these societies collapse anyway. Pick your poison. And we can't sit here writing policy that applies to all the world, they are all on their own track.
Yes, AMOC cycles on and off at short intervals even Homo sapiens can grasp. I've read the 5 million year figure, too, about ocean recovery. You're right, the cheap energy we've depended on to build this level of unsustainability is nearing the end. Still looking for further evidence, but oil and diesel critical for this shit show will likely hit unviable EROI in four decades, give or take. As small as we have made the world, we still haven't figured out we're in this together and show little potential for wising up. I have food in the fridge filled with microplastics, so I guess I'll just be "happy."
Apparently we are already at low EROEI with the mining of tar sands deposits in Canada & Venezuela and fracking for oil and gas (running out of sand AND water), but the oil companies are STILL subsidized, taking everyone for fools. Profits Trump Life, always.
The fracking which turned the US into the world's biggest oil producer is indeed suffering from low EROI. Fracking and tar sand oil harvesting is inherently more costly than the "good old days" of conventional oil. Fracked oil follow the Hubbert curve, although such wells play out faster. The massive subsidizing of fossil fuels is blatant evidence of corruption and the need for publicly financed elections. Too late for such reforms (not coming anyhow) to make a difference.
"we still haven't figured out we're in this together" That's the problem. Think we ever will?
An exceptional few throughout recorded history, have figured it out. Galileo spent his last years imprisoned for figuring it out. Tragically, most people are easily led sheep and the exceptional few who are murderously psychotic run the show, not the Galileo's. This is survival of the fittest, basic animal instinct gone wrong, made deadly by technology.
This is the article that did it for me. We have interrupted the carbon cycle and it will take eons to repair itself.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/aug/19/a-climate-of-unparalleled-malevolence-are-we-on-our-way-to-the-sixth-major-mass-extinction?CMP=share_btn_url
Thank you for sharing this. The Guardian of all MSM is doing the best job of covering collapse. The article is correct in pointing out the massive amount of CO2 we've put out in such a short time is the cause of our dilemma. It's curious to me though that the Sixth Extinction is posed as a question. It's well under way, and the Guardian has published on the subject. Here's a link from one of many articles I have on the extinction under way. I can see and feel it in my own life from the absence of insects and lack of bird song where I live. Elizabeth's Kolbert's book The Sixth Extinction is a good read on the subject as well.
https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/blog/2019/05/nature-decline-unprecedented-report/
https://www.abebooks.com/book-search/kw/the-sixth-extinction-by-elizabeth-kolbert/?ref_=ps_ms_267691761&cm_mmc=msn-_-comus_dsa-_-naa-_-naa&msclkid=a934e8c5289d1a3622778187b16725dc
I read her book a few weeks ago. It's excellent. In June I drove from NC to upstate NY and from there to Connecticut and then back to NC. Didn't have to clean the windshield even once. There was one large bug splatter and a couple of very small ones. Unbelievable. I think everyone is just tiptoeing past the graveyard. Good to hear from you.
I lived in rural areas of upstate NY for 35 years. The loss of insects is palpable. Motorcycle rides in the mountains made cleaning the face shield of my helmet every 100 miles mandatory. This summer, not even a housefly buzzed through my house. Used to be a guaranteed annoyance. Nor is there much bird activity, I lamented that a few articles ago.
Younger people don't see these losses. The baseline has shifted.
Yes, at 84 now, I have the perspective of years. Raised on a farm in Western CT and then upstate NY. All developed now. The woods were our playground and we walked everywhere, picking berries all the way. Had a farm in the NC Blue Ridge Mtns. for 5 years-bees, chickens, maple syrup, organic garden. Sad to see the changes and think of what's coming.
That sounds like a lovely way to grow up. I was mostly a small city boy, but gravitated to the country after college which I much preferred.
They sure don’t know. Every 100 years, all new people. And everyone of them only knows, and feels the rightness of, the time into which they were born.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2015/7/6/1399682/-Let-s-talk-about-insects
Written 10 years ago. 😳😢😑☹️
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2015/7/6/1399682/-Let-s-talk-about-insects
Thanks for sharing. Your article now lives in my Sixth Extinction/Insects folder. Your memories of insects hit home with me, sweaty summer kid days in southern Ohio running from sunup to sundown, caked in sweat and dirt. The buzz, songs, fascinating alienness and irritation of insects was a granted part of life. We have only a vague idea of what we have exterminated and its critical importance to us.
Yep. It’s already too late, and we’re still accelerating towards the cliff.
Yes, the rate of emissions is going up. It's utter insanity.
Thank the gods billionaires will have AI to entertain them in their bunkers when we're gone.
Geoff, you might find it interesting to know that I saw "The Blob" when it was playing in theaters on my very first date. (We were in the third grade, and rode the bus to the movie.) The blob didn't scare me then, but the state of the AMOC does now, as it should everybody.
Thank you for doing such extensive research and sharing your information with the rest of us.
AMOC has hit the headlines the last couple of years in the science community and for those of us who wish to be collapse aware. I've been overdue in writing about it. It IS scary, as its potential immediacy and ramifications for sudden collapse can't be discounted. Unfortunately, as you know, I already wrote of the now inevitable melt of the Greenland ice sheet which literally feeds the issue. Greenland was a goner somewhere around 300 ppm of CO2, about the time The Blob came out. If it triggers an ice age the melt will stop, but you and I won't much care.
The research has consumed a lot of time. It's a little easier now as after four years I have thousands of links to information — probably tens of thousands — carefully organized by necessity to access. Still, this work can be tiring.
Part of me is stunned that humanity is choosing this path. Part of me isn't surprised at all. Thank you for supporting my work. I hope you are well and wish I could bring better news.
Hopelessness is a hard road to travel. This is another candle for the journey: https://www.noemamag.com/its-time-to-give-up-hope-for-a-better-climate-get-heroic/. The more little momentary lights the better. Thank you for writing some sane thoughts.
Thank you for the article. That was a fantastic essay. Pedaling hope in the face of overwhelming evidence of unstoppable collapse is not useful. Little doubt I have lost readers from refusing to do so.
Pam's deeply thoughtful article may serve as inspiration as I try to move forward with my own writing.
One conclusion I've reached: everyone has a right to handle collapse in their own way (as long as it's not doing active harm). Those that see and embrace reality are probably better served in the long run as is pointed out in the essay. Those that need hopium may be ill prepared to handle coming shocks.
In my immediate life no one will engage in these conversations. Perhaps this is good in some ways. Watching meaningless Buffalo Bills football games with my family is a mental break and my sister is an excellent cook. Avoiding reality in a situation where the die is cast has legitimacy, and I suspect they understand more than they acknowledge. Who am I to judge?
A few years ago I would have felt infuriation watching the games, particularly over the incessant destructive advertising. I have learned to stay calm and refrain from comment, better for me and better for them.
The modest online community I have somehow attracted here allows me to speak my mind and hopefully make those of us who are collapse aware a little less lonely.
I appreciate the share. Stay well.
Truth telling.
Our society has turned away.
"What will you tell your children and grandchildren if you sit this one out?" If we do, that question will probably be moot.
I am deeply pessimistic about our future, even a handful surviving, but I am better able to get out of bed every day doing what's right. Moot or not, I want to look younger people in the eye and show I tried to make a difference.
Referring to whether there will be any to look in the eye.
And you're not the only one, BTW
Quite a different question. IDK. There could be a few left to look in the eye if they band together with diverse skills, have a location that can support inhabitability and a lot of good luck I suppose, but that is pure conjecture on my part. If the AMOC collapses it certainly alters the odds of anyone surviving drastically. There is evidence human ancestors nearly went extinct 900,000 years ago, but of course the circumstances were far different.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/human-ancestors-nearly-went-extinct-900-000-years-ago/
No, I'm not and certainly hope I didn't imply that.
I always appreciate how you bring together the core facts with such clarity. As you point out, this collapse is not going to happen all at once. Cessation is not a binary, momentary step function. It will unfold over the coming decades. What I want to know is: Tipping into what? Ocean currents will always flow. Heat increases, also salinity as the glacial melt dimishes. What is the transitional phase, how long might it last? Can we anticipate the reconfiguration? Weather never stops. What regional impacts are predicted on the sliding scale timeline? The more people understand about the coming changes, the better we will be able to cope. I am trying to displace anxiety with rationality, for the sake of sanity. Hard thoughts about future times.