Humans are not stupid, but we have reached a point where our technology has far outpaced our ability to comprehend what is going on, let along do anything to fix it. Much though we admire them, our brains are quite small and adapted to handling small problems, like shaping a stone tool or inventing a steam engine, rather than grasping the sequence that led to overpopulation, overshoot and - ultimately - leads to collapse. Most people just snuggle down in their electronic cocoons and pretend to themselves it is not happening. They will pay the price that all species pay when their ecological niche escapes their ability to adapt. Extinction.
Thanks for the comment Julian, I will mildly disagree on the first part. Human intelligence varies, some are smarter than others. That said IQ is a controversial measurement full of cultural bias. In any case, intelligence is not the sole measure of the worth of a human. Emotion, education and what lies in one's heart are equally important, and everyone should be treated with respect except for the ones who are hateful bigots who want to be the boss of everyone. The sociopaths of society should have no path to the top.
I one hundred percent agree our technology has outstripped our ability to handle it. Certainly the London fog should have given serious pause as should the horror of Bhopal, India or the grim Exxon Valdez disaster (countless examples of course), but as you point out people snuggle down in their electronic cocoons and escape. For many, computers and consumption are an addiction. If we took them away, I'm willing to bet we would see behavior similar to serious drug withdrawal. Any conversation about the behavior that has led us to the precipice of collapse is at once simple and complex. It appears we may soon be an evolutionary dead end. It's stunning to witness.
I refer to our collective intelligence, both intellectual and emotional. Even though individuals are bright enough to understand the impact of the ten megathreats, most people are not - and their apathetic deadweight will drag the rest of society down, led by the sociopaths you mention. How many lives will be lost is still a moot question, but several scientists have estimated 90% or more. However, that number is still open for society to decide...
I wonder whether intelligence or lack thereof, has much to do with being able face reality and foresee collapse on the near horizon.
I personally think the minuscule number who can see this is perhaps a genetic fluke, (even an aberration - how nice would it be not to know?), and believe the majority of our species are genetically programed to ignore truly large threats they can do nothing about on an individual basis.
I was brought up in a super right wing family with virtually no contact with my father, but met up with him in my thirties and discovered we were on the identical wave length regarding overshoot and collapse.
No one else in the family could tho, and my children can't, despite many family members being academically 'bright'.
What my father and I did perhaps have in common was difficult childhoods. I do think those who suffer abuse or deprivation of some sort in childhood perhpas predisposes them to see danger ahead.
Stunning to witness indeed, and yet not many people are even aware and have fully processed what is currently happening. I feel as if many people still consider collapse to be a possible distant future, when endless evidence, first hand accounts, and research indicate that it is happening right now as we speak. And likely has been happening since the 21st century at least. Look at the recent IPCC assessments; the last warnings, emissions need to be cut drastically in the 2020s, code red for humanity, etc. Its on mainstream news. Collapse is obviously imminent. Yet at the same time little people, whether on the internet or in person, seem to be consciously discussing the future in terms of the literal collapse of modern civilization following the severe decline in the planets life support systems. I can only seem to discuss these issues openly on surprisingly niche corners of the internet (such as this thread). although the sentiment is certainly growing online, I feel like I am the only one in my personal life who recognizes this. Besides the public seems to be preoccupied with a LOT of different cultural issues... DESPITE the growing consensus of our situation, the world STILL feels out of touch with reality, and all i have managed to achieve is watching it slowly unfold.
I do feel the same way. I call it "sleepwalking into oblivion". My neighbors and acquaintances seem to be clueless as to the seriousness of the situation.
That's the case for wising humanity up, that I suggest is the task at hand. We don't know what to do, but won't even look unless we have to, where Trump is being effective at making things so abhorrent that people are paying attention and we could use some strategizing about how to inform them of our dire straits.
Nothing will be done in time to avert catastrophic global warming and its attendant calamities of mass species extinction, severe droughts, global crop failures, famine, tropical disease migration, extreme weather events, coastal flooding, massive wildfires, societal disruption, and armed conflicts over resources.
Nothing. Just watch.
We'll have COP30, COP31, and COP32 climate summits ad nauseum, and greenhouse gas levels will continue to increase along with temperatures.
And while there is a rapidly diminishing window of time in which humans could stop — or even slow significantly — the accelerating increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas levels, it should be obvious to anyone by now that the window will slam shut before anything is done other than useless talking and worthless promises to take bold action sometime in the future.
When I started this work four years ago, I was already pessimistic. However, I didn't have the information to back my feelings or possibly change my mind. Since then as my knowledge increased from reading scientific studies, learning how the global climate system works, and watching the inadequate proposals of our "leaders." Like you, I have concluded my pessimism was well-founded. When one learns the Greenland ice sheet was formed when CO2 was just 300ppm one understands complete melt is unstoppable, ditto for the Arctic with more stored carbon and CO2 released to date since the industrial revolution.
Even if we could magically stop emitting GHGs today, while methane would clear in 10–12 years, CO2 would linger for hundreds making recovery questionable, and of course climate change is just one element of overshoot which presents other wildly undiscussed existential threats and boundaries crossed.
We should have started turning the tanker around 50 years ago when we ere first warned. Now, we're a mile from shore.
To make the scale of this task more apparent: I have been looking into carbon removal tech lately (informally). A very promising direct ocean capture (DOC) uses an electrochemical method to strip CO2 from seawater, dissolve the CO2 in some additional seawater to carbonate it, then pour the carbonated water into boreholes in basalt (the SeaO2 + CarbFix method) where it will mineralize. Even using an ultra-efficient membrane-less stripper (still in an MIT lab) it would take 6 million of these operating for 100 years to lower atmospheric CO2 to a safe 350 ppm. Not impossible, but a quick fix seems unlikely.
Hi Glen, as you can tell from the article I'm not a fan of technology saving us. Not familiar with DOC, but you're welcome to share links. In physics there is no free lunch, and the energy expended on tech solutions, inevitably powered by increasingly difficult and ultimately unprofitable FFs is unlikely to save our bacon. It appears we have approximately 50 years left of EROI on such projects, all of them polluting and raising the temperature when explored for, drilled for and burned. Then there's the energy expenditure for manufacturing and deployment of supposed saving the planet technology, requiring mining as well.
The snake is eating its own tail.
Ocean health is of critical importance. Oceans have absorbed most of the excess heat we have created. If they hadn't, we wouldn't have the luxury of this exchange, and they are near the limit of saturation. It surprises me they're not yet considered breached in terms of acidification as the coral reefs die. We must think of the nine points of overshoot. CO2 is just one element of an array of existential threats. Focusing on one isolated issue won't save us.
Consumption must be decreased as rapidly as possible, we must move back to local and regional economies. We must get off of fossil fuels, and even then it's questionable if it's too late. Anything else is a band-aid on a gaping wound we refuse to look at realistically.
All that said, still interested in what you have read on DOC.
A succint summary of some of our predicaments. The crazy part is one could write a dozen more about the rest of them. We are checkmated so many times over it isn’t even funny.
I find the biggest challenge of writing about our predicaments is staying focused on one aspect. They all overlap and can become overwhelming. In four years here, I've never had writer's block, but lately it's been more challenging.
CR022 – The Climate Crisis has arrived. We are moving to slowly. We need a global plan but are responding in a piecemeal fashion.
We are very much on the same page. When looking at PV I found that.
IT WASN'T UNTIL 2020 THAT THE ENERGY PRODUCED BY ALL OF THE PV INSTALLATIONS GLOBALLY ROUGHLY EQUALED THE ENERGY REQUIRED TO PRODUCE THOSE INSTALLATIONS. Very little of that energy is powering the PV manufacturing process. That’s a BIG problem.
We need a Global Plan for how to allocate PV Solar Cells.
Because right now, even though they generate more energy than they require to manufacture, the energy used to make them is putting even more CO2 into the atmosphere.
Right now, every PV Solar Panel made is making the Climate Crisis WORSE.
Because they wear out in 20-25 years.
But the CO2 generated in making them will warm the Earth for roughly 10,000 years.
What we should be doing is allocating ALL of the new PV produced to powering the PV industry. The PV industry needs to be powered by renewables so that it doesn't contribute to the global CO2 level.
Until we do this, we will continue to make the situation worse.
We need a “coordinated global plan” for how we allocate PV renewable resources, other than “sell them to the highest bidders”. Because they are not unlimited and how we use them makes a BIG difference.
I'm also a fan of Smil.
False Hope is “Disinformation”
“The gap between wishful thinking and reality is vast.” So observes Vaclav Smil.
We don't need anymore "false hope" and "positive narratives". We NEED Clear Eyed Realism and honesty. Enough honesty to scare the shit out of people and get them to actually SEE the reality of our predicament.
I believe every "improvement" we make for our comfort and personal longevity is a tradeoff for our longevity as a whole. If we had stayed at the hunter-gatherer level, that would have likely been our longest success as a species. Each leap of knowledge and technology brought more "mastery" of our environment, but also more destruction. If we had stopped at the bronze age, that still would have shortened our duration as a species.
Solar and PV tech is undeniably appealing at first glance, I love geothermal as well. I'm no expert on PV, but my understanding is that at the site they raise temperatures dramatically, little wonder, we all know what black asphalt feels like on a summer day.
The coverage area required for PV installation is problematic to me, covering vast acreage we deem expendable in the west and southwest is another form of ecological destruction. Anyone I know from those areas who love the desert would decry such installations.
It's a shame we couldn't even be bothered with the low-hanging fruit. Merely situating our houses correctly and choosing materials wisely can yield remarkable passive efficiency.
There's been a debate for years about the wisdom of scaring people. At this late date I think hopium has been proven a failure. I'm exhausted by those waiting for someone else to fix our problems. We need a bottom up movement. Top down miracles aren't coming.
What do you think about my suggestion to Geoffrey, that the next move is to get humanity informed, without which nothing likely would be accomplished. You'd be a key player.
I agree that we cannot go forward unless enough people SEE, understand, and accept what is happening to our world. I am doing what I can because I think it's important. Anyone who thinks I'm making money with my "clickbait doomism" grossly overestimates my readership.
That's a HARD reality for those of us who can SEE what's coming to have to swallow.
Nobody CARES what we are saying. No one is LISTENING.
Right now, we are literal Cassandra's.
In five years there will be an audience for what we are saying.
They will be FILLED with RAGE at the loss of their Futures.
"In five years there will be an audience for what we are saying."
I wish that were true, but unfortunately easy answers TRUMP reflection in the brain of the average Joe Sixpack, and anti-intellectualism is all the rage. In five years America is more likely to be full-on fascist than reflective. I wish it were not so. Somebody please prove me wrong.
getting off facebook won't solve anything, for those of us still driving cars, reading articles on the evil substack (check out its content moderation or lack thereof), ordering from amazon. as many others have noted, there's no escaping our complicity in the ecocide we humans are perpetrating - not to mention the genocides, in gaza & sudan.
You're correct. Getting off FB, boycotting Amazon, consuming as little as possible, buying second hand when we need something, eliminating beef in our diets or even going vegan have minimal impact. I do these things because for me being aware demands it. It helps my mental health.
The blatant genocide in Gaza is horrific. It's not a topic I ever imagined writing about, but it became unavoidable. As an American I feel shame for our weapons being sold to Israel for this carnage. The US is I'm pretty certain you know is the biggest arms exporter in the world by far.
Substack has been called out for allowing Nazi content on the site. Some of their investors are problematic for me. Some of us suspect the algorithms suppress writers addressing serious topics that pull the curtain back. This will likely grow worse as authoritarian rule grows. Changing or adding a new platform is on my mind, but for the most part there's no escaping far-right influencers. Free speech is a double-edged sword. I got chased from Twitter, but don't like running. I'll continue to publish here, but am aware.
'Complicity' is too strong when you have limited choices. I am watched and often shadow-banned. Owning my own web-site made me all too aware of strings being pulled behind the scenes. My website is hosted by an international company, but to do business they must follow rules. Sometimes my site is taken down and posts are removed despite my independence.
'But what can we do?' people ask. Well, try consuming much less (especially in the USA), travelling much less, eating local, boycotting AI, stop pretending technology will fix climate collapse, stop believing that economic growth is a divine law, that accumulating wealth is the principal goal in life and start accepting we are nothing but a small deluded destructive part of a planetary ecosystem to which we owe our existence. That'd be a good start.
Many people would argue our individual ability to change our course, with good point. It truly is billionaire level wealth that is driving us over the cliff. However, I'm with you on all your points. It's a moral question, and living on the right side of such questions feels good, and we need a grassroots effort.
For a few decades after WWII, capitalism created a middle class, and FDR's social contract held. Capitalism was never right at its heart, extracting and polluting the Earth unsustainably at heavy cost to people in other nations. Neoliberal economics upped the ante, an even more toxic system of worldwide violence to create economic prosperity for a few. Having gutted every other nation, it has come home to our shores, and the little wealth left to be stolen is from the tatters of the middle class. End stage capitalism and police state fascism go hand in hand, we can now easily see.
We have a multi-tiered ecological crisis, and the end of oil rapidly approaching with most people oblivious to both. Nothing short of organized rebellion will give us a chance now. Thank you for commenting.
Couldn't agree more Geoff. Rebellion is the answer but the system is designed to confuse, sedate and distract. It's all about living in gratitude for what we have and saving what we can. AI and crypto will accelerate collapse and create a dystopian techno-feudalism we cannot even imagine. As for us, "Do not go gentle into that good night, old age should burn and rave at close of day, rage rage against the dying of the light."
"Do not go gentle into that good night," indeed. This atrocious, extractive, violent culture pushes the words of the wisest to the fringes. Gratitude, wonder, and humility should guide us. Thank you, Paolo.
Do you think there’s anyway to stop it? I personally cannot handle walking into the technofeudal world. Millennials and GEN Xers I don’t think can handle this because we’ve experienced a different world and we’re not built for this. GenZ-ers have a higher level of resilience given the world they knew they were walking into.
If all the middle class millenials in GEN Xers took a stand couldn’t we stop it from devolving in this way?
I think it's possible to stop it, but not without great risk and sacrifice. When I was a kid the Democratic party actually stood for families and the working person. The two parties actually passed bills together. The dysfunction you're experiencing is the worst I've ever seen. Both have subscribed to capitalism, which is unsustainable and creates many victims so that a few may prosper. The wealth that has been created comes at the highest price, the inhabitability of the planet.
The people perpetrating this are sociopaths at best, and psychopaths in the worst cases who live in worlds of such wealth they're out of touch with reality. They're also deeply miserable, which is why they keep destroying things, unable to fill the holes in their souls.
We need societies that live simply and revolve around caring for the planet.
Short of revolution and the courage that takes, there's not a chance of that happening. Revolutions happen and sometimes succeed.
Sorry, how I wish I could offer you a comforting answer.
This resonates, and there is some comfort in your assessment re: sociopaths and psychopaths (I've been studying their prevalence in society and how capitalism selects for these traits, so their prevalence at high echelons is much higher than in the general public).
And I agree, it will take great courage, risk and sacrifice.
the hardest part is the betrayal from the good people that do nothing. Yes, there is rage at the sociopaths. But we all know there is evil in the world. But they only succeed when the good people do nothing. It's so frustrating.
I hear your frustration. I have good people in my life that do nothing as well. Although I care for them, it's burdensome, frustrating, and ultimately isolating. Chit-chat wears me out in these times. Change in history always comes down to a few, good or bad, while the majority sit on the sidelines.
We must keep on fighting to help ameliorate the suffering of people but we are witnessing an extinction event and greed & AI have the pedal to the floor.
Yes, collapse is coming. Oil is running out which will fuel inflation. Fires and floods will increasingly make insurance unobtainable. Weather conditions will increase agricultural failure. Climate forced migrations are under way. AI and crypto energy and water use hugely add to the problem, and the 6th Great Extinction is happening at astonishing speed. These conditions also encourage authoritarianism.
Scientific study has underestimated global warming, and its effects aren't linear, they're exponential, and climate change is just one element of overshoot.
The corporate media hides these things, and the politicians are in the hip pockets of AIPAC and Big Oil. My pulse on the public where I live ranges from oblivious to resignation. Most people struggle to pay basic bills as billionaires who live in a state of delusion and narcissism are never satiated.
Some say we are twelve missed meals from revolution. Nothing short of burning this system down will be adequate.
Your article well demonstrates the enormous appetite for water, fossil fuels and raw materials needed to maintain current arrangements. But you have not mentioned that all of this is due to population overshoot, and 8 billion people dedicated to be all that they can possibly be, to be 'authentically me'.
Focusing on the root cause, overshoot isolates the true source of why so many planetary boundaries are crossed, but sadly it still won't matter. Our society is all about money, and making ever more of it. No dissent from this view is allowed. Our system is insatiable and without morality and refinement of 'technique' only makes things worse.
Humans do not matter in modernity, and idiots rapidly infect any and all efforts at organizing any real solutions to our ills. Hidden strings are pulled to make sure this is so. It is an issue of national security and with the re-election of Trump, the hidden strings are not as well hidden.
Only a society built to focus on collective values could make any real change. But in America, and the rest of the western world collective values are quickly labeled as communism and tyranny.
No compromise with individual liberty defined as doing whatever you want to do is allowed. I wish it were not so, but it is. All I have to do is look at MAGA for proof.
Hi Keith, I have addressed overshoot in other articles, and I did show the nine planetary boundaries published Stockholm University with a link to one such article.
I am not a scientist, but have spent four years reading and collecting articles to do this work, learning about and gaining a grim appreciation for how dire our situation is. I agree, sheer population is a problem, a touchy subject with many, understandably. There is a large range of disagreement as to what a sustainable number would be.
That said, we could sustain far more people with reasonable wealth distribution. Billionaire investments and lifestyles do hundreds of times the damage of the poor, or even what's left of the middle-class (also unsustainable). The richest one percent for instance belch more carbon than the poorest 66 percent for instance.
Raw consumption I feel is as big an issue as sheer population.
I agree with you 100 percent about our behavioral problem. It's a theme in my writing, and remarkable to see the sheer denial and stupidity of our "leadership" as the cargoes over the cliff. It's sad, because in WWII we demonstrated the ability to fight a common enemy as one. That was a flesh and blood enemy, not the more furtive Ines of climate change and overshoot. In any case, Biden, Trump, the Green New Deal — all fell short of dealing with reality. Trump is merely accelerating the inevitable. The Greenland ice sheet formed at 300ppm of CO2. It is fated to melt completely, and the Arctic is emitting now.
Obviously, there are numerous other tipping points breached or near so.
MAGA is a revolting movement of ignorance and racism, and it makes me ill to think I could finish my life in such a regime. Sinclair Lewis warned us long ago. Once enough people of color are deported, incarcerated, or enslaved in work camps they will come for writers calling them out.
The next move to make seems glaringly clear to me. It's to inform humanity of the situation. That's it. Nothing will happen without that. This gives us our work to do. How to let every civilized person on Earth know what the score is? That could use a Zoom, perhaps....?????
Being informed is the first step. It's what you, I and many other good writers try to do here. The best environmental organizations have been trying for decades. Unfortunately, things have to get worse before people wake up and become receptive to our messages. That moment may come sooner rather than later as Chump destroys the economy. Where I live, Buffalo, NY it's been extraordinarily hot this summer, mostly mid to high 80s, and like today over 90. The difference from when I went to college here before leaving 40 years ago is pronounced, and people are noticing. I assume all across the country people are noticing. When I'm out, I plant seeds when the opportunity presents.
Mentioning I write about climate change gets few takers though.
Greenpeace is being sued to the tune of $600 million I believe. Individual environmentalists like Max Wilbert get hit with SLAPP suits and fines. We protest at No Kings Day, but they don't care. It's spitting in the wind.
Short of a magical rich philanthropist we need local, grassroots organization and people willing to risk taking a beating and incarceration.
We need media, local and national. Media supporting us even with organization in communities across the country is questionable. We see the media and universities bowing to Chump. We'd likely be presented in the worst possible light because we present a threat to business as usual.
And Trump has his gestapo are ready to do his bidding. I wish I had an easier response. If you want me on a Zoom call, I would do that.
After reading what people write about how dire it is, there’s always "now what?" Next, in dealing with the massive change we need, is to zero in on a doable objective and coordinate for that.
I'm posing that the first thing to take on is tuning humanity on to the danger we are in. You've described how that hasn’t happened, but let’s think about how it might. We are good at selling products, so we could be selling the big wake-up. Maybe an ad agency. Maybe even by their donation. Perhaps get Substack to help, so that on a given day every single Substack post would be about the danger. That would generate news stories. I don’t know why we aren’t already tossing ideas like this around. How to Wake Up the World? -- a list that gets added to, that would be visible. And, do some Zooming to think together. I'll think about the invite.
Not only do we need doable objectives, we need effective ones. The bastards destroying the planet and livelihoods have to feel it. Mere protests won't make a dent. Strikes, protests and a tax revolt are needed. The average American isn't ready for that. Things need to be far worse. They will be, soon.
I seriously doubt Substack ownership would promote the cause. They are making a lot of money, have supported Nazi newsletters, and I doubt want to rock the boat.
Merely saying such things on this forum is a risk. Such conversations would be more safely spent on old-fashioned snail mail.
If people understand the threat is real, they become proactive, so first let's get that understood. Each tuned-in person struggles to tune everyone in, and let's figure out together how we can do that. It's a brainstorm. I was just tossing out a few possibilities. This shouldn't be controversial. God, I hope not in any thinking quarters.
The threats are multiple, far more than climate change. Overshoot needs to be thoroughly understood. Fixing climate alone won't save us, and it seems many ardent climate writers and even scientists have not grasped this fundamental. So, unfortunately, even well-intended thinking quarters have major blind spots.
Be warned, like David Suzuki who came out and more or less said, we're cooked, that is pretty much my belief. I am certain the Arctic is tipped, and the oceans are acidified and near maximum heat absorption. Land carbon sinks absorbed virtually nothing in 2024. I could go on, but you get the idea.
My assessments are hard to hear, but there's no chance of salvaging anything without the measured facts being understood.
Yes, we are cooked. The best we can do is live our own best lives now, until we can’t do that any longer, and then be philosophical about what ever happens after that.
Just do what you feel you need to do to achieve those things. There is no ‘right way’, there is no-one watching you or judging your performance.
Yes, overshoot is the master issue. And this is what I'm saying, that "there's no chance of salvaging anything without the measured facts being understood." So, let's get that to happen.
The "work to do" now is to accept the fact that nothing will be done in time to avert catastrophic global warming and massive disruption — including the deaths of hundreds of millions or even billions of humans — of life on Earth. To quote the insane QAnon cult, which the Mango Megalomaniac embraces, "Nothing can stop what is coming."
My goal has been to educate readers as I have educated myself. The margin for error was probably lost long before I started writing here four years ago. I regret not doing this kind of work decades earlier. I don't disagree with you, even a galvanized, coordinated world effort would likely fail now, which is not coming anyhow, obviously. The latest failure of a plastics treaty provides yet more evidence.
However, I believe in presenting information and letting readers draw their own conclusions. No doubt my opinion shows through though. I never intended to be a pure journalist.
Where I go from here with writing is a question. I can easily continue to bring articles of how the Earth's climate operates and evidence of collapse. I can look at the inevitable failure of the insurance industry or failure of agriculture already underway. I could write about the relatively safest places to go or ideas about how to handle collapse emotionally. Perhaps at some point I will drop research oriented articles and just write from my heart. Like my readers, I am finding my way, and acceptance may become a topic. How are you handling acceptance?
Peter, I am conversant with why you would say that, but the universe is more powerful than you are, and it may have other ideas. I'm just saying. I could phrase that different ways. You just can't give up on life. It's immoral. You are gifted with humanbeingness in what's bigger than you are. You can't know if something could change things. Even aliens.
You're one of the bright shining lights on this platform Geoff. These are hard truths to bear witness to, and even harder to live through, especially those of us now directly, materially, biologically, financially impacted by this multi-course insanity. Thank you for the work you do.
Especially chilling are the nine planetary boundaries, six of which have been breached. I think, truly, we need to change the Latin name of our species: Homo lemmini
For all of the abundance of intelligence spread around the globe, it's apparent that simplicity and elegance (which started this whole vicious cycle) are the winners. Keep it simple, stupid!
According to this study, the observed warming since 2000 can be explained almost entirely by changes in cloud cover and Earth’s albedo, with greenhouse gases playing little to no role.
They argue that what mainstream science interprets as greenhouse-driven EEI is actually a misinterpretation of normal atmospheric thermodynamics.
...
Congratulations on finding a scientific study centered around DENIALISM. This study is a first class demonstration of fake science.
The authors claim observed decrease in albedo + variations in total solar input explain 100% of global warming since 2000.
That is nonsense which ignores completely that CO2 traps heat.
Ned ignored thermodynamics by claiming (tacitly) that CO2 doesn't absorb thermal energy. One of his earlier claims was that atmospheric pressure alone is responsible for a planet's ability to stay warm, despite having an axial rotation. He's obviously still trying really hard to push the "anything but fossil fuel emissions" narrative. IR absorption by CO2 is far from saturated at present levels.
Natasha, I am not familiar with Wijngaarden, but I am familiar with Happer and the CO2 Coalition. I threw cold water on Happer and other physicists for their participation in Climate: The Movie, a piece of slick disinformation for those not reasonably educated on global warming and climate change. One must follow the money and motivations of people no matter how credentialed they are. The institutes behind them are known bad actors.
They conveniently ignore the feedback component of increased water vapour in the atmosphere, as a direct result of the increased warming "forced" by more CO2.
They're either lying or aren't capable of providing complete information. I'll leave it to oyu to decide which it is.
Funding from Koch-related foundations and conservative entities is significant. Greenpeace described the CO₂ Coalition as a "Koch Industries Climate Denial Front Group."
So there you have it.
If you can muster enough brain power, simple thought experiments should make it obvious that increased thermal absorption will be directly proportional to atmospheric CO2 concentration. You double CO2 you double how much heat is absorbed by CO2.
"The reason is that extensive saturation takes place." <--- total nonsense but it does sound good.
“n will be directly proportional to atmospheric CO2 concentration. You double CO2 you double how much heat is absorbed by CO2.”
Beer’s law says no, but then to get an accurate measure it’s necessary to take into account the feedback components that the increase in thermal energy absorption results in.
The Beer-Lambert law, describes how the absorption of light by a solution is DIRECTLY PROPORTIONAL to the concentration of the absorbing substance in solution. It is commonly used in chemistry to determine the concentration of a solute based on the amount of light absorbed. I hope you are not confusing the issue. It is also noteworthy that the CO2 concentration in the air remains less than 1 part in 2000 and at such a low concentration nonlinear effects are minimal. Piecewise linear approximations or 'DIRECTLY PROPORTIONAL' at this concentration is valid.
Or maybe not what? There is no mystery here. You respect honest science or you do not. 'Maybe not' is not health skepticism when you deny basic facts and established science. Does the Beer-Lambert law only apply when you want it to? It appears so.
Were you not able to read the definition of Beer’s Law I provided? That’s the only explanation I could think of for your response. What you provided is for a very simple cases of high concentration (from an optical density perspective) in a single solute liquid system.
I am aware of the current denier narratives that say “CO2 is saturated” or some such nonsense, but the main flaws are not in the way they use Beer’s Law, but in neglecting to include the feedback component water vapour.
Line Broadening: As the concentration of CO2 increases, its absorption spectrum doesn't just get taller; it also gets wider. This phenomenon, known as line broadening, means that CO2 begins to absorb infrared radiation at wavelengths where it previously didn't, increasing the total amount of energy it can trap. It's not just about how "tall" the absorption is at a single point, but how wide the entire absorption spectrum is.
The greenhouse effect also doesn't happen in a single, static layer. It occurs throughout the entire column of the atmosphere. CO2 near the ground may absorb a great deal of the IR radiation emitted from Earth's surface, this absorbed energy is then re-emitted in all directions, some of it back toward the surface.
A photon of IR radiation is absorbed and readmitted several times in a saturated environment. The more this happens the hotter the atmosphere is.
Adding more CO2 raises the effective height in the atmosphere from which IR radiation can escape to space. As the atmosphere cools with altitude, less IR energy is available to be radiated away. This deficit must be balanced, and the lower atmosphere must warm up to drive the planet to radiate the same amount of energy back out to space.
the HITRAN database, when properly applied, confirms that adding more CO2 to the atmosphere continues to trap more heat, leading to a warming climate. The "saturation" argument is a classic misrepresentation of a complex physical process.
Think of it like blankets on a bed. Each new layer you add helps to trap more heat.
When steady state is reached the top blanket contuses to radiate the same amount of body heat, the heat that the body produces is constant, but the body in the bed becomes uncomfortably warm with too many blankets.
Yes, they conveniently leave out the effects of feedback mechanisms, like the increase in the powerful GHG water vapour, which affects only the lower half of the atmosphere, but results in the majority of the thermal energy trapped by the increase in CO2.
Uh, no. I shouldn't have to explain how forcings and feedbacks in the climate system are connected, unless I'm teaching a grade ten science class. I Honestly don't believe I am.
I love my readers participating. It helps tremendously when I'm tired from this effort, particularly since the further I go, the more I see we don't have problems, we have an out of control predicament.
In terms of global warming, when I learned how saturated the oceans are with heat (and acidified), the inevitability of the Greenland ice sheet melting completely, and the millions of years of stored carbon and methane just beginning to release in the Arctic, I could only conclude we're cooked. The near complete failure of land carbon sinks in 2024 didn't help me either. I was in a very different place when I started this work in 2021. If nothing else it has helped me prepare mentally, and I hope that applies to at least some of my readers as well. I think knowing we're not alone in our recognition is important since most of us are unable to have these conversations in our real lives.
My daughter is only 24. I feel deeply for the younger people. At 64, beginning to embrace thoughts of death is natural. 24 should feel like an endless future. This is a burden they should not have to carry.
I feel much the same, ALRA. The facts of climate change are too much for the young minds in our family to digest. I’m hopeful that in time they will understand, but, the die is cast, the destructive wheels are already in motion, and now the jig is up. We are all merely spectators, showing up at intermission, waiting for a show detailing the collapse of our amazing biosphere.
Dooming our own children to a life of pain. What monsters thought that was okay?
I’m curious why you say renewables won’t make any difference at all. Surely a greater percentage of electricity being generated from some form of renewable resource (solar, wind, hydro, dare I include nuclear) should have at least some positive effect in delaying climate change, no? People are getting awfully excited that China is producing more and more of its electricity from renewables, and seemingly making great strides with small modular reactors.
I have numerous articles collected on the incomprehensible damage billionaires inflict on the planet. Without bringing the destruction of their carbon footprints and ecological destruction under control we have little chance for a future.
The figures you cite on US population sound about right. I learned the US was about 5 percent of the world population, but consumed about 30 percent of its resources in grade school over 50 years ago. Much of the world envied our prosperity, and we exported it everywhere, a completely unsustainable model that I feel has made many mentally ill.
Yes, birthrates are falling, and one of the reasons is the endocrine disruption scourge of plastic.
Not only is heat a direct killer of people, but agriculture as well. Between oil becoming ever tighter and food failure, people clinging to the bottom of the ladder are going to fall, and the Trump administration is removing all safety nets. It's easy to imagine the "policies" we're seeing are "soft" deliberate policy of population reduction. I'll likely have something to say about that in a future article.
I think it's about "thinning the herd," as if that's any sort of comfort. The thinning also applies to those who grasp that idea, as they push everyone within arms' length into the furnace to avoid falling into it themselves.
Humans are not stupid, but we have reached a point where our technology has far outpaced our ability to comprehend what is going on, let along do anything to fix it. Much though we admire them, our brains are quite small and adapted to handling small problems, like shaping a stone tool or inventing a steam engine, rather than grasping the sequence that led to overpopulation, overshoot and - ultimately - leads to collapse. Most people just snuggle down in their electronic cocoons and pretend to themselves it is not happening. They will pay the price that all species pay when their ecological niche escapes their ability to adapt. Extinction.
Thanks for the comment Julian, I will mildly disagree on the first part. Human intelligence varies, some are smarter than others. That said IQ is a controversial measurement full of cultural bias. In any case, intelligence is not the sole measure of the worth of a human. Emotion, education and what lies in one's heart are equally important, and everyone should be treated with respect except for the ones who are hateful bigots who want to be the boss of everyone. The sociopaths of society should have no path to the top.
I one hundred percent agree our technology has outstripped our ability to handle it. Certainly the London fog should have given serious pause as should the horror of Bhopal, India or the grim Exxon Valdez disaster (countless examples of course), but as you point out people snuggle down in their electronic cocoons and escape. For many, computers and consumption are an addiction. If we took them away, I'm willing to bet we would see behavior similar to serious drug withdrawal. Any conversation about the behavior that has led us to the precipice of collapse is at once simple and complex. It appears we may soon be an evolutionary dead end. It's stunning to witness.
I refer to our collective intelligence, both intellectual and emotional. Even though individuals are bright enough to understand the impact of the ten megathreats, most people are not - and their apathetic deadweight will drag the rest of society down, led by the sociopaths you mention. How many lives will be lost is still a moot question, but several scientists have estimated 90% or more. However, that number is still open for society to decide...
I wonder whether intelligence or lack thereof, has much to do with being able face reality and foresee collapse on the near horizon.
I personally think the minuscule number who can see this is perhaps a genetic fluke, (even an aberration - how nice would it be not to know?), and believe the majority of our species are genetically programed to ignore truly large threats they can do nothing about on an individual basis.
I was brought up in a super right wing family with virtually no contact with my father, but met up with him in my thirties and discovered we were on the identical wave length regarding overshoot and collapse.
No one else in the family could tho, and my children can't, despite many family members being academically 'bright'.
What my father and I did perhaps have in common was difficult childhoods. I do think those who suffer abuse or deprivation of some sort in childhood perhpas predisposes them to see danger ahead.
Stunning to witness indeed, and yet not many people are even aware and have fully processed what is currently happening. I feel as if many people still consider collapse to be a possible distant future, when endless evidence, first hand accounts, and research indicate that it is happening right now as we speak. And likely has been happening since the 21st century at least. Look at the recent IPCC assessments; the last warnings, emissions need to be cut drastically in the 2020s, code red for humanity, etc. Its on mainstream news. Collapse is obviously imminent. Yet at the same time little people, whether on the internet or in person, seem to be consciously discussing the future in terms of the literal collapse of modern civilization following the severe decline in the planets life support systems. I can only seem to discuss these issues openly on surprisingly niche corners of the internet (such as this thread). although the sentiment is certainly growing online, I feel like I am the only one in my personal life who recognizes this. Besides the public seems to be preoccupied with a LOT of different cultural issues... DESPITE the growing consensus of our situation, the world STILL feels out of touch with reality, and all i have managed to achieve is watching it slowly unfold.
Do you feel the same way?
I do feel the same way. I call it "sleepwalking into oblivion". My neighbors and acquaintances seem to be clueless as to the seriousness of the situation.
That's the case for wising humanity up, that I suggest is the task at hand. We don't know what to do, but won't even look unless we have to, where Trump is being effective at making things so abhorrent that people are paying attention and we could use some strategizing about how to inform them of our dire straits.
Nothing will be done in time to avert catastrophic global warming and its attendant calamities of mass species extinction, severe droughts, global crop failures, famine, tropical disease migration, extreme weather events, coastal flooding, massive wildfires, societal disruption, and armed conflicts over resources.
Nothing. Just watch.
We'll have COP30, COP31, and COP32 climate summits ad nauseum, and greenhouse gas levels will continue to increase along with temperatures.
And while there is a rapidly diminishing window of time in which humans could stop — or even slow significantly — the accelerating increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas levels, it should be obvious to anyone by now that the window will slam shut before anything is done other than useless talking and worthless promises to take bold action sometime in the future.
When I started this work four years ago, I was already pessimistic. However, I didn't have the information to back my feelings or possibly change my mind. Since then as my knowledge increased from reading scientific studies, learning how the global climate system works, and watching the inadequate proposals of our "leaders." Like you, I have concluded my pessimism was well-founded. When one learns the Greenland ice sheet was formed when CO2 was just 300ppm one understands complete melt is unstoppable, ditto for the Arctic with more stored carbon and CO2 released to date since the industrial revolution.
Even if we could magically stop emitting GHGs today, while methane would clear in 10–12 years, CO2 would linger for hundreds making recovery questionable, and of course climate change is just one element of overshoot which presents other wildly undiscussed existential threats and boundaries crossed.
We should have started turning the tanker around 50 years ago when we ere first warned. Now, we're a mile from shore.
To make the scale of this task more apparent: I have been looking into carbon removal tech lately (informally). A very promising direct ocean capture (DOC) uses an electrochemical method to strip CO2 from seawater, dissolve the CO2 in some additional seawater to carbonate it, then pour the carbonated water into boreholes in basalt (the SeaO2 + CarbFix method) where it will mineralize. Even using an ultra-efficient membrane-less stripper (still in an MIT lab) it would take 6 million of these operating for 100 years to lower atmospheric CO2 to a safe 350 ppm. Not impossible, but a quick fix seems unlikely.
unverified ai calculation, FYI.
Hi Glen, as you can tell from the article I'm not a fan of technology saving us. Not familiar with DOC, but you're welcome to share links. In physics there is no free lunch, and the energy expended on tech solutions, inevitably powered by increasingly difficult and ultimately unprofitable FFs is unlikely to save our bacon. It appears we have approximately 50 years left of EROI on such projects, all of them polluting and raising the temperature when explored for, drilled for and burned. Then there's the energy expenditure for manufacturing and deployment of supposed saving the planet technology, requiring mining as well.
The snake is eating its own tail.
Ocean health is of critical importance. Oceans have absorbed most of the excess heat we have created. If they hadn't, we wouldn't have the luxury of this exchange, and they are near the limit of saturation. It surprises me they're not yet considered breached in terms of acidification as the coral reefs die. We must think of the nine points of overshoot. CO2 is just one element of an array of existential threats. Focusing on one isolated issue won't save us.
Consumption must be decreased as rapidly as possible, we must move back to local and regional economies. We must get off of fossil fuels, and even then it's questionable if it's too late. Anything else is a band-aid on a gaping wound we refuse to look at realistically.
All that said, still interested in what you have read on DOC.
A succint summary of some of our predicaments. The crazy part is one could write a dozen more about the rest of them. We are checkmated so many times over it isn’t even funny.
I find the biggest challenge of writing about our predicaments is staying focused on one aspect. They all overlap and can become overwhelming. In four years here, I've never had writer's block, but lately it's been more challenging.
I wrote about this same topic in March of 2023.
CR022 – The Climate Crisis has arrived. We are moving to slowly. We need a global plan but are responding in a piecemeal fashion.
We are very much on the same page. When looking at PV I found that.
IT WASN'T UNTIL 2020 THAT THE ENERGY PRODUCED BY ALL OF THE PV INSTALLATIONS GLOBALLY ROUGHLY EQUALED THE ENERGY REQUIRED TO PRODUCE THOSE INSTALLATIONS. Very little of that energy is powering the PV manufacturing process. That’s a BIG problem.
We need a Global Plan for how to allocate PV Solar Cells.
Because right now, even though they generate more energy than they require to manufacture, the energy used to make them is putting even more CO2 into the atmosphere.
Right now, every PV Solar Panel made is making the Climate Crisis WORSE.
Because they wear out in 20-25 years.
But the CO2 generated in making them will warm the Earth for roughly 10,000 years.
What we should be doing is allocating ALL of the new PV produced to powering the PV industry. The PV industry needs to be powered by renewables so that it doesn't contribute to the global CO2 level.
Until we do this, we will continue to make the situation worse.
We need a “coordinated global plan” for how we allocate PV renewable resources, other than “sell them to the highest bidders”. Because they are not unlimited and how we use them makes a BIG difference.
I'm also a fan of Smil.
False Hope is “Disinformation”
“The gap between wishful thinking and reality is vast.” So observes Vaclav Smil.
We don't need anymore "false hope" and "positive narratives". We NEED Clear Eyed Realism and honesty. Enough honesty to scare the shit out of people and get them to actually SEE the reality of our predicament.
I believe every "improvement" we make for our comfort and personal longevity is a tradeoff for our longevity as a whole. If we had stayed at the hunter-gatherer level, that would have likely been our longest success as a species. Each leap of knowledge and technology brought more "mastery" of our environment, but also more destruction. If we had stopped at the bronze age, that still would have shortened our duration as a species.
Solar and PV tech is undeniably appealing at first glance, I love geothermal as well. I'm no expert on PV, but my understanding is that at the site they raise temperatures dramatically, little wonder, we all know what black asphalt feels like on a summer day.
The coverage area required for PV installation is problematic to me, covering vast acreage we deem expendable in the west and southwest is another form of ecological destruction. Anyone I know from those areas who love the desert would decry such installations.
It's a shame we couldn't even be bothered with the low-hanging fruit. Merely situating our houses correctly and choosing materials wisely can yield remarkable passive efficiency.
There's been a debate for years about the wisdom of scaring people. At this late date I think hopium has been proven a failure. I'm exhausted by those waiting for someone else to fix our problems. We need a bottom up movement. Top down miracles aren't coming.
What do you think about my suggestion to Geoffrey, that the next move is to get humanity informed, without which nothing likely would be accomplished. You'd be a key player.
I agree that we cannot go forward unless enough people SEE, understand, and accept what is happening to our world. I am doing what I can because I think it's important. Anyone who thinks I'm making money with my "clickbait doomism" grossly overestimates my readership.
That's a HARD reality for those of us who can SEE what's coming to have to swallow.
Nobody CARES what we are saying. No one is LISTENING.
Right now, we are literal Cassandra's.
In five years there will be an audience for what we are saying.
They will be FILLED with RAGE at the loss of their Futures.
That will be our moment.
IF we haven't been silenced.
To the rescue! We need to lead the way. At least most people are distraught, which is the precondition for moving ahead.
"In five years there will be an audience for what we are saying."
I wish that were true, but unfortunately easy answers TRUMP reflection in the brain of the average Joe Sixpack, and anti-intellectualism is all the rage. In five years America is more likely to be full-on fascist than reflective. I wish it were not so. Somebody please prove me wrong.
Your concern is well-founded. A leap in wisdom is not likely.
getting off facebook won't solve anything, for those of us still driving cars, reading articles on the evil substack (check out its content moderation or lack thereof), ordering from amazon. as many others have noted, there's no escaping our complicity in the ecocide we humans are perpetrating - not to mention the genocides, in gaza & sudan.
You're correct. Getting off FB, boycotting Amazon, consuming as little as possible, buying second hand when we need something, eliminating beef in our diets or even going vegan have minimal impact. I do these things because for me being aware demands it. It helps my mental health.
The blatant genocide in Gaza is horrific. It's not a topic I ever imagined writing about, but it became unavoidable. As an American I feel shame for our weapons being sold to Israel for this carnage. The US is I'm pretty certain you know is the biggest arms exporter in the world by far.
Substack has been called out for allowing Nazi content on the site. Some of their investors are problematic for me. Some of us suspect the algorithms suppress writers addressing serious topics that pull the curtain back. This will likely grow worse as authoritarian rule grows. Changing or adding a new platform is on my mind, but for the most part there's no escaping far-right influencers. Free speech is a double-edged sword. I got chased from Twitter, but don't like running. I'll continue to publish here, but am aware.
'Complicity' is too strong when you have limited choices. I am watched and often shadow-banned. Owning my own web-site made me all too aware of strings being pulled behind the scenes. My website is hosted by an international company, but to do business they must follow rules. Sometimes my site is taken down and posts are removed despite my independence.
https://chasingthesquirrel.com/doomstead/index.php
Customer service let me know that I am under the 'American Plan' and that they have nothing to do with what the 'men in black' are doing.
If a platform does not moderate the men in black will.
'But what can we do?' people ask. Well, try consuming much less (especially in the USA), travelling much less, eating local, boycotting AI, stop pretending technology will fix climate collapse, stop believing that economic growth is a divine law, that accumulating wealth is the principal goal in life and start accepting we are nothing but a small deluded destructive part of a planetary ecosystem to which we owe our existence. That'd be a good start.
Thank you for your depth and insight.
Many people would argue our individual ability to change our course, with good point. It truly is billionaire level wealth that is driving us over the cliff. However, I'm with you on all your points. It's a moral question, and living on the right side of such questions feels good, and we need a grassroots effort.
For a few decades after WWII, capitalism created a middle class, and FDR's social contract held. Capitalism was never right at its heart, extracting and polluting the Earth unsustainably at heavy cost to people in other nations. Neoliberal economics upped the ante, an even more toxic system of worldwide violence to create economic prosperity for a few. Having gutted every other nation, it has come home to our shores, and the little wealth left to be stolen is from the tatters of the middle class. End stage capitalism and police state fascism go hand in hand, we can now easily see.
We have a multi-tiered ecological crisis, and the end of oil rapidly approaching with most people oblivious to both. Nothing short of organized rebellion will give us a chance now. Thank you for commenting.
Couldn't agree more Geoff. Rebellion is the answer but the system is designed to confuse, sedate and distract. It's all about living in gratitude for what we have and saving what we can. AI and crypto will accelerate collapse and create a dystopian techno-feudalism we cannot even imagine. As for us, "Do not go gentle into that good night, old age should burn and rave at close of day, rage rage against the dying of the light."
"Do not go gentle into that good night," indeed. This atrocious, extractive, violent culture pushes the words of the wisest to the fringes. Gratitude, wonder, and humility should guide us. Thank you, Paolo.
Do you think there’s anyway to stop it? I personally cannot handle walking into the technofeudal world. Millennials and GEN Xers I don’t think can handle this because we’ve experienced a different world and we’re not built for this. GenZ-ers have a higher level of resilience given the world they knew they were walking into.
If all the middle class millenials in GEN Xers took a stand couldn’t we stop it from devolving in this way?
I think it's possible to stop it, but not without great risk and sacrifice. When I was a kid the Democratic party actually stood for families and the working person. The two parties actually passed bills together. The dysfunction you're experiencing is the worst I've ever seen. Both have subscribed to capitalism, which is unsustainable and creates many victims so that a few may prosper. The wealth that has been created comes at the highest price, the inhabitability of the planet.
The people perpetrating this are sociopaths at best, and psychopaths in the worst cases who live in worlds of such wealth they're out of touch with reality. They're also deeply miserable, which is why they keep destroying things, unable to fill the holes in their souls.
We need societies that live simply and revolve around caring for the planet.
Short of revolution and the courage that takes, there's not a chance of that happening. Revolutions happen and sometimes succeed.
Sorry, how I wish I could offer you a comforting answer.
This resonates, and there is some comfort in your assessment re: sociopaths and psychopaths (I've been studying their prevalence in society and how capitalism selects for these traits, so their prevalence at high echelons is much higher than in the general public).
And I agree, it will take great courage, risk and sacrifice.
the hardest part is the betrayal from the good people that do nothing. Yes, there is rage at the sociopaths. But we all know there is evil in the world. But they only succeed when the good people do nothing. It's so frustrating.
I hear your frustration. I have good people in my life that do nothing as well. Although I care for them, it's burdensome, frustrating, and ultimately isolating. Chit-chat wears me out in these times. Change in history always comes down to a few, good or bad, while the majority sit on the sidelines.
The collapse is coming.
We must keep on fighting to help ameliorate the suffering of people but we are witnessing an extinction event and greed & AI have the pedal to the floor.
Yes, collapse is coming. Oil is running out which will fuel inflation. Fires and floods will increasingly make insurance unobtainable. Weather conditions will increase agricultural failure. Climate forced migrations are under way. AI and crypto energy and water use hugely add to the problem, and the 6th Great Extinction is happening at astonishing speed. These conditions also encourage authoritarianism.
Scientific study has underestimated global warming, and its effects aren't linear, they're exponential, and climate change is just one element of overshoot.
The corporate media hides these things, and the politicians are in the hip pockets of AIPAC and Big Oil. My pulse on the public where I live ranges from oblivious to resignation. Most people struggle to pay basic bills as billionaires who live in a state of delusion and narcissism are never satiated.
Some say we are twelve missed meals from revolution. Nothing short of burning this system down will be adequate.
Your article well demonstrates the enormous appetite for water, fossil fuels and raw materials needed to maintain current arrangements. But you have not mentioned that all of this is due to population overshoot, and 8 billion people dedicated to be all that they can possibly be, to be 'authentically me'.
Focusing on the root cause, overshoot isolates the true source of why so many planetary boundaries are crossed, but sadly it still won't matter. Our society is all about money, and making ever more of it. No dissent from this view is allowed. Our system is insatiable and without morality and refinement of 'technique' only makes things worse.
Humans do not matter in modernity, and idiots rapidly infect any and all efforts at organizing any real solutions to our ills. Hidden strings are pulled to make sure this is so. It is an issue of national security and with the re-election of Trump, the hidden strings are not as well hidden.
Only a society built to focus on collective values could make any real change. But in America, and the rest of the western world collective values are quickly labeled as communism and tyranny.
No compromise with individual liberty defined as doing whatever you want to do is allowed. I wish it were not so, but it is. All I have to do is look at MAGA for proof.
Hi Keith, I have addressed overshoot in other articles, and I did show the nine planetary boundaries published Stockholm University with a link to one such article.
I am not a scientist, but have spent four years reading and collecting articles to do this work, learning about and gaining a grim appreciation for how dire our situation is. I agree, sheer population is a problem, a touchy subject with many, understandably. There is a large range of disagreement as to what a sustainable number would be.
That said, we could sustain far more people with reasonable wealth distribution. Billionaire investments and lifestyles do hundreds of times the damage of the poor, or even what's left of the middle-class (also unsustainable). The richest one percent for instance belch more carbon than the poorest 66 percent for instance.
Raw consumption I feel is as big an issue as sheer population.
I agree with you 100 percent about our behavioral problem. It's a theme in my writing, and remarkable to see the sheer denial and stupidity of our "leadership" as the cargoes over the cliff. It's sad, because in WWII we demonstrated the ability to fight a common enemy as one. That was a flesh and blood enemy, not the more furtive Ines of climate change and overshoot. In any case, Biden, Trump, the Green New Deal — all fell short of dealing with reality. Trump is merely accelerating the inevitable. The Greenland ice sheet formed at 300ppm of CO2. It is fated to melt completely, and the Arctic is emitting now.
Obviously, there are numerous other tipping points breached or near so.
MAGA is a revolting movement of ignorance and racism, and it makes me ill to think I could finish my life in such a regime. Sinclair Lewis warned us long ago. Once enough people of color are deported, incarcerated, or enslaved in work camps they will come for writers calling them out.
The next move to make seems glaringly clear to me. It's to inform humanity of the situation. That's it. Nothing will happen without that. This gives us our work to do. How to let every civilized person on Earth know what the score is? That could use a Zoom, perhaps....?????
Being informed is the first step. It's what you, I and many other good writers try to do here. The best environmental organizations have been trying for decades. Unfortunately, things have to get worse before people wake up and become receptive to our messages. That moment may come sooner rather than later as Chump destroys the economy. Where I live, Buffalo, NY it's been extraordinarily hot this summer, mostly mid to high 80s, and like today over 90. The difference from when I went to college here before leaving 40 years ago is pronounced, and people are noticing. I assume all across the country people are noticing. When I'm out, I plant seeds when the opportunity presents.
Mentioning I write about climate change gets few takers though.
Greenpeace is being sued to the tune of $600 million I believe. Individual environmentalists like Max Wilbert get hit with SLAPP suits and fines. We protest at No Kings Day, but they don't care. It's spitting in the wind.
Short of a magical rich philanthropist we need local, grassroots organization and people willing to risk taking a beating and incarceration.
We need media, local and national. Media supporting us even with organization in communities across the country is questionable. We see the media and universities bowing to Chump. We'd likely be presented in the worst possible light because we present a threat to business as usual.
And Trump has his gestapo are ready to do his bidding. I wish I had an easier response. If you want me on a Zoom call, I would do that.
After reading what people write about how dire it is, there’s always "now what?" Next, in dealing with the massive change we need, is to zero in on a doable objective and coordinate for that.
I'm posing that the first thing to take on is tuning humanity on to the danger we are in. You've described how that hasn’t happened, but let’s think about how it might. We are good at selling products, so we could be selling the big wake-up. Maybe an ad agency. Maybe even by their donation. Perhaps get Substack to help, so that on a given day every single Substack post would be about the danger. That would generate news stories. I don’t know why we aren’t already tossing ideas like this around. How to Wake Up the World? -- a list that gets added to, that would be visible. And, do some Zooming to think together. I'll think about the invite.
Not only do we need doable objectives, we need effective ones. The bastards destroying the planet and livelihoods have to feel it. Mere protests won't make a dent. Strikes, protests and a tax revolt are needed. The average American isn't ready for that. Things need to be far worse. They will be, soon.
I seriously doubt Substack ownership would promote the cause. They are making a lot of money, have supported Nazi newsletters, and I doubt want to rock the boat.
Merely saying such things on this forum is a risk. Such conversations would be more safely spent on old-fashioned snail mail.
If people understand the threat is real, they become proactive, so first let's get that understood. Each tuned-in person struggles to tune everyone in, and let's figure out together how we can do that. It's a brainstorm. I was just tossing out a few possibilities. This shouldn't be controversial. God, I hope not in any thinking quarters.
The threats are multiple, far more than climate change. Overshoot needs to be thoroughly understood. Fixing climate alone won't save us, and it seems many ardent climate writers and even scientists have not grasped this fundamental. So, unfortunately, even well-intended thinking quarters have major blind spots.
Be warned, like David Suzuki who came out and more or less said, we're cooked, that is pretty much my belief. I am certain the Arctic is tipped, and the oceans are acidified and near maximum heat absorption. Land carbon sinks absorbed virtually nothing in 2024. I could go on, but you get the idea.
My assessments are hard to hear, but there's no chance of salvaging anything without the measured facts being understood.
Yes, we are cooked. The best we can do is live our own best lives now, until we can’t do that any longer, and then be philosophical about what ever happens after that.
Just do what you feel you need to do to achieve those things. There is no ‘right way’, there is no-one watching you or judging your performance.
Just do what you think is right for you.
I don't know if you know I did a post about Suzuki:
Get inspired by David Suzuki
https://suzannetaylor.substack.com/p/shall-i-put-money-out-for-what-could
Yes, overshoot is the master issue. And this is what I'm saying, that "there's no chance of salvaging anything without the measured facts being understood." So, let's get that to happen.
The "work to do" now is to accept the fact that nothing will be done in time to avert catastrophic global warming and massive disruption — including the deaths of hundreds of millions or even billions of humans — of life on Earth. To quote the insane QAnon cult, which the Mango Megalomaniac embraces, "Nothing can stop what is coming."
My goal has been to educate readers as I have educated myself. The margin for error was probably lost long before I started writing here four years ago. I regret not doing this kind of work decades earlier. I don't disagree with you, even a galvanized, coordinated world effort would likely fail now, which is not coming anyhow, obviously. The latest failure of a plastics treaty provides yet more evidence.
However, I believe in presenting information and letting readers draw their own conclusions. No doubt my opinion shows through though. I never intended to be a pure journalist.
Where I go from here with writing is a question. I can easily continue to bring articles of how the Earth's climate operates and evidence of collapse. I can look at the inevitable failure of the insurance industry or failure of agriculture already underway. I could write about the relatively safest places to go or ideas about how to handle collapse emotionally. Perhaps at some point I will drop research oriented articles and just write from my heart. Like my readers, I am finding my way, and acceptance may become a topic. How are you handling acceptance?
Peter, I am conversant with why you would say that, but the universe is more powerful than you are, and it may have other ideas. I'm just saying. I could phrase that different ways. You just can't give up on life. It's immoral. You are gifted with humanbeingness in what's bigger than you are. You can't know if something could change things. Even aliens.
Isn't the US military one of the biggest producers of greenhouse gases?
If ranked as a country the US military's GHG emissions would put it at 46 or 47, I don't remember the exact figure.
You're one of the bright shining lights on this platform Geoff. These are hard truths to bear witness to, and even harder to live through, especially those of us now directly, materially, biologically, financially impacted by this multi-course insanity. Thank you for the work you do.
Especially chilling are the nine planetary boundaries, six of which have been breached. I think, truly, we need to change the Latin name of our species: Homo lemmini
For all of the abundance of intelligence spread around the globe, it's apparent that simplicity and elegance (which started this whole vicious cycle) are the winners. Keep it simple, stupid!
Thanks, Geoff
According to this study, the observed warming since 2000 can be explained almost entirely by changes in cloud cover and Earth’s albedo, with greenhouse gases playing little to no role.
They argue that what mainstream science interprets as greenhouse-driven EEI is actually a misinterpretation of normal atmospheric thermodynamics.
...
Congratulations on finding a scientific study centered around DENIALISM. This study is a first class demonstration of fake science.
The authors claim observed decrease in albedo + variations in total solar input explain 100% of global warming since 2000.
That is nonsense which ignores completely that CO2 traps heat.
Wow, you read my article in 20 seconds, your brilliance is formidable. Who pays you "Natasha?" LMAO.
Exactly
Ned ignored thermodynamics by claiming (tacitly) that CO2 doesn't absorb thermal energy. One of his earlier claims was that atmospheric pressure alone is responsible for a planet's ability to stay warm, despite having an axial rotation. He's obviously still trying really hard to push the "anything but fossil fuel emissions" narrative. IR absorption by CO2 is far from saturated at present levels.
https://skepticalscience.com/saturated-co2-effect-advanced.htm
Natasha, I am not familiar with Wijngaarden, but I am familiar with Happer and the CO2 Coalition. I threw cold water on Happer and other physicists for their participation in Climate: The Movie, a piece of slick disinformation for those not reasonably educated on global warming and climate change. One must follow the money and motivations of people no matter how credentialed they are. The institutes behind them are known bad actors.
https://geoffreydeihl.substack.com/p/noxious-disinformation-climate-the
They conveniently ignore the feedback component of increased water vapour in the atmosphere, as a direct result of the increased warming "forced" by more CO2.
They're either lying or aren't capable of providing complete information. I'll leave it to oyu to decide which it is.
"Natasha" has been blocked, there is no point in interacting with her.
I think “she” lives in a basement in Minsk.
Or perhaps works for J.P. Morgan.
William Happer
Co-founded and chairs the CO₂ Coalition, a nonprofit dedicated to promoting views that increased CO₂ may be beneficial.
https://co2coalition.org/
Funding from Koch-related foundations and conservative entities is significant. Greenpeace described the CO₂ Coalition as a "Koch Industries Climate Denial Front Group."
So there you have it.
If you can muster enough brain power, simple thought experiments should make it obvious that increased thermal absorption will be directly proportional to atmospheric CO2 concentration. You double CO2 you double how much heat is absorbed by CO2.
"The reason is that extensive saturation takes place." <--- total nonsense but it does sound good.
Yes, the CO2 Coalition is an arm of right-wing think tanks ultimately tying back to fossil fuels.
“n will be directly proportional to atmospheric CO2 concentration. You double CO2 you double how much heat is absorbed by CO2.”
Beer’s law says no, but then to get an accurate measure it’s necessary to take into account the feedback components that the increase in thermal energy absorption results in.
The Beer-Lambert law, describes how the absorption of light by a solution is DIRECTLY PROPORTIONAL to the concentration of the absorbing substance in solution. It is commonly used in chemistry to determine the concentration of a solute based on the amount of light absorbed. I hope you are not confusing the issue. It is also noteworthy that the CO2 concentration in the air remains less than 1 part in 2000 and at such a low concentration nonlinear effects are minimal. Piecewise linear approximations or 'DIRECTLY PROPORTIONAL' at this concentration is valid.
Or maybe not, at least in the atmosphere…
Or maybe not what? There is no mystery here. You respect honest science or you do not. 'Maybe not' is not health skepticism when you deny basic facts and established science. Does the Beer-Lambert law only apply when you want it to? It appears so.
Were you not able to read the definition of Beer’s Law I provided? That’s the only explanation I could think of for your response. What you provided is for a very simple cases of high concentration (from an optical density perspective) in a single solute liquid system.
I am aware of the current denier narratives that say “CO2 is saturated” or some such nonsense, but the main flaws are not in the way they use Beer’s Law, but in neglecting to include the feedback component water vapour.
Line Broadening: As the concentration of CO2 increases, its absorption spectrum doesn't just get taller; it also gets wider. This phenomenon, known as line broadening, means that CO2 begins to absorb infrared radiation at wavelengths where it previously didn't, increasing the total amount of energy it can trap. It's not just about how "tall" the absorption is at a single point, but how wide the entire absorption spectrum is.
The greenhouse effect also doesn't happen in a single, static layer. It occurs throughout the entire column of the atmosphere. CO2 near the ground may absorb a great deal of the IR radiation emitted from Earth's surface, this absorbed energy is then re-emitted in all directions, some of it back toward the surface.
A photon of IR radiation is absorbed and readmitted several times in a saturated environment. The more this happens the hotter the atmosphere is.
Adding more CO2 raises the effective height in the atmosphere from which IR radiation can escape to space. As the atmosphere cools with altitude, less IR energy is available to be radiated away. This deficit must be balanced, and the lower atmosphere must warm up to drive the planet to radiate the same amount of energy back out to space.
the HITRAN database, when properly applied, confirms that adding more CO2 to the atmosphere continues to trap more heat, leading to a warming climate. The "saturation" argument is a classic misrepresentation of a complex physical process.
Think of it like blankets on a bed. Each new layer you add helps to trap more heat.
When steady state is reached the top blanket contuses to radiate the same amount of body heat, the heat that the body produces is constant, but the body in the bed becomes uncomfortably warm with too many blankets.
You're not actually here to "learn", except perhaps as an AI bot "learning" how to spread denier narratives.
And you are a troll.
Yes, they conveniently leave out the effects of feedback mechanisms, like the increase in the powerful GHG water vapour, which affects only the lower half of the atmosphere, but results in the majority of the thermal energy trapped by the increase in CO2.
Ya gotta wonder why they keep doing that.
Because unlike you they are not trying to confuse the issue with unrelated facts.
Feedback from a forcing is unrelated? How come?
The burden is on you to explain yourself.
Uh, no. I shouldn't have to explain how forcings and feedbacks in the climate system are connected, unless I'm teaching a grade ten science class. I Honestly don't believe I am.
I love my readers participating. It helps tremendously when I'm tired from this effort, particularly since the further I go, the more I see we don't have problems, we have an out of control predicament.
In terms of global warming, when I learned how saturated the oceans are with heat (and acidified), the inevitability of the Greenland ice sheet melting completely, and the millions of years of stored carbon and methane just beginning to release in the Arctic, I could only conclude we're cooked. The near complete failure of land carbon sinks in 2024 didn't help me either. I was in a very different place when I started this work in 2021. If nothing else it has helped me prepare mentally, and I hope that applies to at least some of my readers as well. I think knowing we're not alone in our recognition is important since most of us are unable to have these conversations in our real lives.
My daughter is only 24. I feel deeply for the younger people. At 64, beginning to embrace thoughts of death is natural. 24 should feel like an endless future. This is a burden they should not have to carry.
I feel much the same, ALRA. The facts of climate change are too much for the young minds in our family to digest. I’m hopeful that in time they will understand, but, the die is cast, the destructive wheels are already in motion, and now the jig is up. We are all merely spectators, showing up at intermission, waiting for a show detailing the collapse of our amazing biosphere.
Dooming our own children to a life of pain. What monsters thought that was okay?
I’m curious why you say renewables won’t make any difference at all. Surely a greater percentage of electricity being generated from some form of renewable resource (solar, wind, hydro, dare I include nuclear) should have at least some positive effect in delaying climate change, no? People are getting awfully excited that China is producing more and more of its electricity from renewables, and seemingly making great strides with small modular reactors.
I have numerous articles collected on the incomprehensible damage billionaires inflict on the planet. Without bringing the destruction of their carbon footprints and ecological destruction under control we have little chance for a future.
The figures you cite on US population sound about right. I learned the US was about 5 percent of the world population, but consumed about 30 percent of its resources in grade school over 50 years ago. Much of the world envied our prosperity, and we exported it everywhere, a completely unsustainable model that I feel has made many mentally ill.
Yes, birthrates are falling, and one of the reasons is the endocrine disruption scourge of plastic.
Not only is heat a direct killer of people, but agriculture as well. Between oil becoming ever tighter and food failure, people clinging to the bottom of the ladder are going to fall, and the Trump administration is removing all safety nets. It's easy to imagine the "policies" we're seeing are "soft" deliberate policy of population reduction. I'll likely have something to say about that in a future article.
I think it's about "thinning the herd," as if that's any sort of comfort. The thinning also applies to those who grasp that idea, as they push everyone within arms' length into the furnace to avoid falling into it themselves.
Vain hope. They too will die.