The Walls Are Closing In
The parade of stupidity is overwhelming now
If we were a rational species, we would be galvanized as one in unified pursuit of our survival on the planet. The science of global warming and overshoot, while subject to adjustment as study continues and physical conditions deteriorate, is unimpeachable in its evidence and ramifications. The first evidence linking CO2 to global warming was demonstrated by scientist Eunice Foote in 1856. Her ingenious experiment was simple and homemade. Using thermometers, glass cylinders and an air pump, she isolated component gases of the atmosphere and exposed them to the sun’s rays. Measuring the change in their temperatures, she discovered that carbon dioxide and water vapor absorbed enough heat to affect climate.
Exposed documents show Exxon employed its own scientists to confirm the same in the late 1970s, and their predictions of global warming have proven remarkably accurate. The heat, fires, floods and ice sheet melt we’re experiencing today were foreseen, and maliciously covered up. More recent document discoveries reveal Big Oil was actually aware earlier — by 1954, and building its first tools of disinformation in 1953 because of smog suffocating Los Angeles. In 1990, the US Navy identified climate change as the biggest threat to national security in this report declassified by the Freedom of Information Act.
That there is still argument and denial over the causes of climate change as wet-bulb temperatures take lives is absurd. If we don’t stop burning fossil fuels, we ensure our self-destruction.
Instead of acting, we have lived in denial while overconsuming the Earth. Predictably, oil companies have been promoting fake solutions such as carbon capture and storage (CSS) and direct air capture (DAC), so they can continue drilling. Anything but the truth is required when protecting obscene profits, and government invests our tax money in these lies. When I wrote The Real Eco Terrorists in 2024, Big Oil profits based on the latest information available (2022), were: Exxon $56 billion, a slippery $6.3 million an hour, Shell $40 billion, Chevron $36.5 billion, TotalEnergies $36.2 billion, BP $28 billion, and ConocoPhillips $18.7 billion.
And all of this end of times graft is backed once again by our money, an estimated $760 billion annually in subsidies, tax breaks, and “unpriced externalities.”
We face multiple crises identified by overshoot, each one only realized at global scale because of fossil fuels. Climate change is just one component. Overshoot comprises nine planetary boundaries, six of which are currently breached. I believe most of us now recognize the reality of climate change (even if we’re not talking about it, as we should be), but may be unaware of overshoot and its equally serious ramifications. The graphic below illustrates the basics. Please consider reading The Planet Has Limits. So Must We for the basics
The nine planetary boundaries and their status
Unicorn thinking: Renewables? They depend on oil.
Largely unspoken of and existential in its implications, the end of the oil era party is approaching like a locomotive careening off the tracks. Yes, burning oil is killing us. Unfortunately, not burning oil will kill us, too, such is our absolute dependence. Art Berman, a geologist with decades in the oil and gas industry, is predicting 40 to 60 more years of economically viable oil.
Ever-increasing energy is needed to extract ever-less attractive deposits. Evidence lies in oil companies investing in projects with lower economic returns, like the rapidly depleting Permian Basin shale fields and Alberta, Canada tar sand oil. The end of sufficient energy return on investment (EROI) approaches. And disturbingly, there is no plan for that end.
Have you heard of a credible plan to replace oil? I haven’t, and BTW, it’s impossible.
Sure, we were promised The Green New Deal, a transition to wind and solar. I’m sorry, to say that was a fantasy even before sociopath Trump trampled the industry. I’ve provided evidence oil is running out, this is a fact, and without oil, particularly diesel, building, manufacturing and maintaining wind turbines, solar panels and battery grids is an impossibility. Even if that wasn’t the case, the mining required to realize that ambition would be its own ecological disaster, feeding equally fatal overshoot and accelerating the Sixth Great Extinction which is under way at a speed never remotely seen in the history of the planet, primarily from unrelenting habitat destruction. Sorry for this analysis, but these are my sober discoveries in a four-year journey to find the truth, when I naively wondered if EVs could be helpful.
I write this tough stuff because it’s necessary. We sure as hell aren’t getting the truth of our situation through the political system or media.
That “clean” energy transition we were being sold requires incomprehensibly vast mining for rare minerals and rare earths for wind turbines, solar panels and batteries. It requires vast quantities of rock for concrete and steel. All of that is dependent on heavy equipment which burns hundreds of gallons of diesel an hour.
Diesel equipment is necessary not just for excavation, but for hauling mined materials to processing facilities, and transporting and installing finished products, wind turbines hundreds of feet high and solar panels covering hundreds of thousands of acres. Maintenance and replacement at the end lifecycle of these components, about 25 years, also requires heavy diesel powered machines.
Producing steel requires coal, coke, natural gas, and electricity, yet more activity that produces carbon dioxide (CO2) as well as sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOX), carbon monoxide (CO), and metal dust. Concrete is similarly problematic. Although less destructive methods of concrete production are being explored, it remains one of the top global warming contributors with enormous additional problems including runoff, soil erosion, water pollution, and flooding.
Wind farms often require mountain top blasting, and solar array projects at the necessary scale each cover tens of thousands of acres of land. These realities create enormous ecological destruction that feeds overshoot. Furthermore, even if these technologies were magically benign and built to maximum capacity, they can’t power the society we’re accustomed to, as they could never match the energy density or consistency of fossil fuels. So-called renewables if they were viable would require profound changes in our values and how we spend our time. Considering the mental health of contemporary society, this could be a leap forward.
Water use of renewables
Almost every step I have described here requires incomprehensible amounts of water in a world suffering extreme, historic and increasing drought in competition with drinking and agricultural water. I touched on this profound problem in Showdown at Thacker Pass, an article about a lithium mining operation in northern Nevada. Using Vancouver-based Lithium America’s own published reports, I estimated water requirements for the mine come to 1.38 trillion gallons over the course of 46 years. Later I learned my calculations were somewhat conservative. Well, I do like to give our corporate friends the benefit of the doubt.
Insane and unnecessary pressure: Crypto and AI
I won’t go into every evil of AI and crypto being jammed down our throats for the purposes of this article, nor will I differentiate them, because they both require the same thing, gargantuan server warehouses that cover up to hundreds of acres. These “hyperscale data centers” like renewables depend on diesel for their components and construction. They’re dependent on the same materials as renewables, from rocks and minerals to concrete and steel. Renewables can at least return energy to the grid, but AI and crypto just suck the life out of it. They’re profligate energy and water users and every new generation of AI requires more energy and more cooling in spite of chip advancements.
Claims have been made about powering these behemoths with renewables and nuclear energy. Great PR, but the bigger truth is they’re fueling a boom in new gas plants and pipelines. Billions are being made on building this infrastructure as we’re simultaneously told AI can solve the climate crisis.
Consider this story of what a new Meta mega data center 400 yards from their house is doing to this couple’s lives. Still on Facebook? Get off.
It was over 90°F yet again in Buffalo, NY today, you know, that infamous former Siberian outpost. If you live in Texas, pray your 379 data centers don’t take down your AC on a 105°F day, or leave you dry at the tap.
Humans are not stupid, but we have reached a point where our technology has far outpaced our ability to comprehend what is going on, let along do anything to fix it. Much though we admire them, our brains are quite small and adapted to handling small problems, like shaping a stone tool or inventing a steam engine, rather than grasping the sequence that led to overpopulation, overshoot and - ultimately - leads to collapse. Most people just snuggle down in their electronic cocoons and pretend to themselves it is not happening. They will pay the price that all species pay when their ecological niche escapes their ability to adapt. Extinction.
Nothing will be done in time to avert catastrophic global warming and its attendant calamities of mass species extinction, severe droughts, global crop failures, famine, tropical disease migration, extreme weather events, coastal flooding, massive wildfires, societal disruption, and armed conflicts over resources.
Nothing. Just watch.
We'll have COP30, COP31, and COP32 climate summits ad nauseum, and greenhouse gas levels will continue to increase along with temperatures.
And while there is a rapidly diminishing window of time in which humans could stop — or even slow significantly — the accelerating increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas levels, it should be obvious to anyone by now that the window will slam shut before anything is done other than useless talking and worthless promises to take bold action sometime in the future.