Clear and Present Dangers
2024 may determine our future on the planet
2023 was the hottest year recorded in human history and with the transition of La Niña to the hotter cycle of El Niño last year, and ever-increasing CO2 and methane in the atmosphere, 2024 is projected to be hotter. There is a good chance 2024 will exceed the 1.5° C (2.7° F) threshold which the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has warned is the maximum global temperature increase we can withstand, without endangering major natural Earth systems that keep the planet inhabitable. Five of nine climate tipping points are in immediate jeopardy, each one with the potential to create a domino effect on the others.
No, the world won’t end tomorrow, this year, ten years, or twenty from now, but our economic systems will crash on the current path. Civilization is only made possible by sustained agriculture. The heat, fire and droughts we’re experiencing, the massive rainstorms and floods will continue to destroy crops, and agriculture will fall into permanent decline with catastrophic failures becoming increasingly frequent. In 2022, U.S. crop insurance cost 546 percent more than in 2001. Workers in the fields will have greater difficulty harvesting surviving crops, literally working and dying in life-threatening conditions. That’s already happening. Livestock is in peril as well. The heat event in Kansas in 2022 resulting in thousands of dead cattle is indicative of a world-wide issue, and what is to come. These events will drive food scarcity and inflation. People in the hottest parts of the world attempting to migrate to cooler climes and flee inundated coastal areas will increase, possibly, to an incomprehensible 1.2 billion by 2030. Countries, already cracking down on immigration, will close their borders, and the news will be filled with the faces of desperation, violence and increased genocide. The U.S. is not immune. Groundwater reserves across the country and in California, the fifth-biggest economy in the world, are depleted, jeopardizing our position as a food producer with worldwide implications. This New York Times article tells the story. The record-breaking heat wave in the south and west last summer is still fresh in our minds. Hundreds died. No country is immune to the #ClimateEmergency.
Science tells us we have six years to get this crisis under control. We still have a chance to mitigate the worst outcomes. This is no time to give up. However, change is happening far too slowly. Yes, renewable energy is making strides, but we must address the root issue, the burning of fossil fuels. We released a record forty gigatons of CO2 into the atmosphere last year. If our policymakers won’t take the lead, then we must. We must protest for the end of fossil fuels, reduce our driving and consumption, pull our accounts from the banks that finance the petroleum industry (top four JPMorgan Chase, Citi, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America, complete list here), and use our collective power to affect massive change. Our money is power. We must boycott Amazon, Walmart, Home Depot, Target and similar, and have conversations with those misled to believe climate change is a hoax. We must make those struggling in the economy see it’s not an issue of color or immigration, but one of grievous wealth disparity driven by neoliberal capitalism.
As Robert Reich points out:
The wealthiest 1% of Americans now bring home more than 40% of the country’s total income, up from 10% in the 1950s and ’60s. And they control 31% of the nation’s wealth, while the bottom 50% has only 2.5%.
THAT is the problem. We are ALL victims, liberal or conservative. We must unite. It’s class warfare as usual, and every purchase we make empowers the billionaires who are running a planetary death camp.
Fascism lurking
As if this isn’t enough, we have rising far-right movements in the world, trending toward fascism.
In Italy, the election of Giorgia Meloni and her far-right Brothers of Italy party has traceable lineage to the Benito Mussolini’s fascist regime. Hundreds of neo-fascist men were filmed doing chilling salutes reminiscent of Nazi Germany just days ago, on January 7.
In Sweden, the Sweden Democrats took 20 percent of the vote in the general election in 2022. Created in 1988, the party is the descendant of a far-right, racist group called Bevara Sverige Svenskt (BSS), translated as “Keep Sweden Swedish.” BSS was inspired by the fascist organization Nysvenska Rörelsen (New Swedish Movement) formed during WWII in 1941.
In New Zealand, the 2019 Christchurch mosque shootings in which 51 people died and 40 were injured, far-right extremism was the factor. Shortly after that, the white nationalist party Action Zealandia emerged.
In all of these examples, economic inequality, the advances of multiculturalism, and the loss of traditional white male hegemony are drivers. Sounds familiar, does it not?
In America, of course, we have Donald Trump, Oath Keepers, Proud Boys and ludicrous conspiracy theories fomented by right-wing billionaires. Let’s give particular thanks to Rupert Murdock for his 24/7 lying machine called Fox News, twisting the intention of free speech in the name of personal profit. Speech and propaganda are not the same.
The truth is all of our problems, the climate emergency, grotesque wealth inequality, the Sixth Extinction under way, and the chemicals in our bodies have been created by the age-old problems of greed and sloth. In America, we have been lulled by myths and brain draining entertainment culture.
How we win
The only righteous wars we ever fought were for our independence from England and King George III, the Civil War, and WWII. WWII was of course a battle against Nazis and fascism, parading openly again today, and a powerful example of what we can accomplish when galvanized as a nation.
The Civil War gave freedom to slaves, but unfortunately racism is baked into the system to this day. Any black man who has had his neck kneeled on or been shot in the back by the police would confirm this, if he could.
We beat back the Gilded Age that arose after the Civil War with the ascendance of the robber barons. We formed unions, protested and had strikes. Fourteen-hour work days and factories burning to the ground were unacceptable. Blood was shed. Lives were lost. We had to lay everything on the line for reasonable rights and equality. That’s the way it is. No victory is forever. Greed and sloth are forever.
Women won the right to vote through the suffrage movement in 1920 and the addition of the 19th amendment to the constitution. However, blacks, given that basic right after the Civil War, still couldn’t dependably vote because of Jim Crow laws and state level discrimination.
We won again after the greed fueled 1929 stock market crash, electing FDR. His New Deal created jobs and basic safety nets for the average worker. His Keynesian economics were far more equitable than the neoliberal policies of today that have speeded the destruction of the planet, and created a near omnipotent ruling class that does not care if we live or die. We are the new factory workers where the factory is a burning planet.
We won with the Civil Rights movement. It took blood of all colors, and recognition of our shared humanity. African Americans finally gained the unfettered right to vote with the Voting Rights Act of 1965.
With protest, we won the end of the Vietnam War and gained the formation of the EPA shortly after. People took to the streets and endured police brutality. Police always back the power structure. That’s the way it is, and that’s what it took.
Today, we face two dangers, one new, and one old, climate change and rising authoritarianism. Our government has been co-opted by oligarchs and their unlimited money. Their minions, our political leadership, are owned. The 24/7 machine of advertising and entertainment keeps churning along, with the majority struggling to hang on, too weary or misinformed to fight that wealth disparity so well described by Robert Reich.
That makes you, dear reader, one of the informed with a duty to act in any way you can. The stakes have never been more fearful. Speaking of fear, FDR had some famous words.
At his inauguration at one of the darkest times in the country, he said, “The only thing to fear is fear itself.” That is still truth, and his speech still resonates today. It is time to step up and honor those who sacrificed before us, for our own sake and a future for our children. Boycott, protest, and have thoughtful conversations with those who have been misled. Concentrate on the economic struggles most of us feel, our common ground. Even changing just one mind is powerful. Remember to listen first. Breaking through demands patience, respect, and acknowledgement.
Certainly, the deprivation of Germany after WWI led to the rise of Hitler and WWII. The roots of the Civil War are ugly, but it did emancipate slaves, which of course was morally correct. All war is heinous, and I agree, one needs to look at the conditions that precede these horrors. I am fearful of the conditions we see today.
Very passionate and scary article, Geoffrrey, and i appreciate the fact that my friends who don't feel as committed as i and others do will read and be grabbed by it. i'm a farmer (albeit a small one and every time harvest, planting, fertilizing, aerial spraying assaults us all, I feel guilty on behalf of my neighbors (I eschew any of those methods - I'd rather have an achy back for a few days.) But i do wonder 'how are we going to get all this done' since it's off the plates now, thank goodness. (I'm n author, musician and organizer, too, among other things.) And I have some of that poison in my body from prior surgeries which harm everyone but i didn't know that at the time. i'm very glad you've brought these very scary issues up - we used to do them but as I learned more, both about agriculture and politics (the same as mega-corporate control of our society - world. I do what i can but how much can we cut back, during all 4 seasons. I'm glad you opened this bucket of worms because the beaucratic mess will only, as you note beard this lion in the den.